The voters got it right
Rachel Alexandra 130 to Zenyatta 99

The best news of the new year, of course, is that Zenyatta is running in '10. So the two great race mares will probably face off on a conventional dirt surface (should they remain sound). Wherever they run I will be there. It just might be the most anticipated race in the history of the sport in America.

A decade worth of betting

Great project.

My two favorite writers on Horse of the Year -

Andrew Beyer

Steven Crist

The Morning Telegraph was founded in 1833, more than 60 years before the Daily Racing Form. Both were bought by Moe Annenberg in the 1920s.

Excerpt from The First Century: Daily Racing Form Chronicles 100 Years of Thoroughbred Racing by Joe Hirsch (1996)

Daily Racing Form was America's racing newspaper in the Midwest and West, but in the East it had to share the market with The Morning Telegraph. Both were Annenberg publications; they shared common business, statistical and editorial staffs, but as a concession to the New York print unions they had separate press rooms in the same building. Perhaps because of tradition, The Morning Telegraph, with its broadsheet format, was more popular with the public. However, the Daily Racing Form, a tabloid, continued to be offered in the East until a decision was made to discontinue in 1951.

In a similar vein, The Morning Telegraph was briefly offered to the racing public in the Midwest and West during the 1950s. Its broadsheet mode, so popular in the East, was rejected by those to whom the tabloid size was the norm. Broadsheet remained the choice in the East until 1993.

In the 1950s, New York City was served by eight daily newspapers: the Times, Herald-Tribune, Daily News and Daily Mirror in the morning and the World-Telegram, the Sun, the Post and the Journal-American in the afternoon. One by one these papers closed, in part due to pressure from the International Typographical Union under the direction of Bert Powers.

Daily Racing management, seeking to avoid the kind of long, debilitating strikes that preceded the closing of the majority of New York's newspapers, purchased a piece of property in Hightstown, New Jersey, just off the New Jersey Turnpike. Midway between New York and Philadelphia, the property was just outside the jurisdiction of the New York ITU.

A modern newspaper plant was constructed, and it opened in November of 1971, just as talks were under way between The Morning Telegraph and the New York Typographical Union. The paper that was printed at the Hightstown plant was Daily Racing Form's first venture into 'cold type' and was sold in Mid-Atlantic locations while the New York office of The Morning Telegraph continued to print that paper.

Negotiations between the paper and the union were stalemated and going downhill in the spring of 1972. As the New York union called for strike, it was announced on April 1 that The Morning Telegraph would no longer be published and that the Hightstown office would henceforth print the Eastern edition of the Daily Racing Form, but in broadsheet mode with which readers of The Morning Telegraph were familiar.

The union reacted by throwing a picket line around the 52nd Street office, barring passage in and out of the building. Some union members also journeyed to Hightstown and attempted to picket there, but an injunction was obtained and the pickets were removed to a location from which they were no longer effective. Because ground transport of records and certain equipment was barred by the picket line in New York, essential items were taken to the roof of the building and removed by helicopter.

Maverick baseball owner Bill Veeck ran Suffolk Downs from 1969-1971 and documents his experience in Thirty Tons a Day: The Rough Riding Education of a Neophyte Racetrack Operator.  In his first year, Suffolk Downs ran the richest turf race in the history of American racing - the two mile, $200,000 added Yankee Gold Cup.

The race had created such interest around the country that ABC-TV had approached me indirectly about telecasting it live on Wide World of Sports, which would have meant a windfall income of something like $50,000. The catch was that they wanted me to delay the race for an hour so that it would fit into their programing. And that I wasn't going to do. I had instituted a policy of Precision Post, which meant that the races went off scrupulously on schedule, not when the last dollar was shoved through the betting windows - a radical departure at Suffolk Downs. I certainly wasn't going to throw it away on the big race of the year. Besides, television may run the world but it doesn't run me. There is, I think, a not-so-subtle difference between having the TV people point their cameras at your race - which is a form of reporting - and subjugating your race to their programing. When you accommodate yourself so docilely to their direction, your race becomes a TV show, your track is reduced to a backdrop, and your customers become props. "You want to telecast the race?" I told them. "Fine. But it's our race you'll have to telecast, not yours."

Jean-Pierre best thirteen others to win the Yankee Gold Cup in 3:19 4/5.

Class are over! Grades are due next week. It has been a long semester. Overloads and new preps are no fun.

A couple things on my mind

The Arkansas Derby finally (re)earned Grade I status. Hooray! Now it is time to demote the Bluegrass Stakes.

The Jockey Club's Equine Industry Database will be analyzed by (paid?) researchers before its release to the general public (read here). Why? Release the data and let Economists, Statisticians, Epidemiologists, and Animal Scientists use the data for research. I'd look at it for free if there was possibility for using the data to get a publication in an academic journal. Epidemiologist Tim Parkin gets privileged access to the data and I imagine his results will be what is reported in the press releases when the data comes out. The industry gets to spin the results as opposed to independent researchers. This seems to be the wrong and more expensive approach, but not surprising from an industry overly concerned with public perception. However by holding the data and putting their own spin on it, the industry opens itself up to conspiracy theories not unlike those surrounding "climategate". Release the raw data and let independent researchers do the work.

Let me reiterate that I will look at the data for free. I have extensive experience analyzing large datasets and making "sure there are no problems such as duplicate reporting".

Jockeys and horsemen are once again debating the jockey payout model (read here). Jockey's typically get 10% of the purse if they finish first, 5% if they finish second or third, and a flat mount fee if they are off the board. Mount fees vary across tracks. At Churchill Downs it is $45, Penn National $75, and Philadelphia Park $100. Jockey's want higher mount fees (more like Philly Park) and are working with regulators to achieve them. The horsemen want to bargain with jockeys without involving regulators. What would I like to see? I would like mount fees to be negotiated between trainers/owners and jockeys on a race by race basis. I'd be willing to pay more for a better jockey. A new jockey trying to break into the local circuit might be willing to take less to attract mounts, thus getting an opportunity to show off his skills and potentially charge more down the road. On a heavy favorite, a jockey might be willing to accept a lower mount fee or even nothing for a chance at getting his 10%. All jockeys are the same so why should the price be the same?

Does use of new "safer" whips in horse races results in more whipping? (read here) It makes sense. If the horse can't feel the whip than you whip it more to implore greater effort. If there is more whipping isn't that PR loss for the image conscious industry? 

People who don't like the fact that horses are whipped during a race probably don't like horse racing to begin with and most certainly aren't betting it. Forget about them. 

 

Tomorrow I'm off to the annual meeting of the Southern Economic Association in San Antonio. I organized a session titled "Economic Issues in the Equine Industry" and it includes papers by Brian Chezum (St. Lawrence), Ann Gillette (Kennesaw State), and Jill Stowe (U of Kentucky).

My paper is co-authored with Ryne Marksteiner, a Rhodes undergraduate. Below is a very brief summary.

The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Racing Performance
The purpose of this study was to find the peak age for a thoroughbred’s racing performance and determine the rates at which a horse’s speed (as measured by Beyer speed figures) increases to its peak and declines past it. A horse’s speed figures may vary widely over the course of a career. The average speed figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, are 100, 109, and 117, respectively, indicating substantial improvement with age. The differences between the speed figures indicate that for a 1¼ mile race, the typical Kentucky Derby winner would finish six lengths ahead of the typical Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 5½ lengths behind the typical Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

The dataset is composed of 202 male horses that are at least six years old and have made at least 45 starts. The table below groups horses into 24 categories based on age and shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure. For example, 95 horses made 231 total starts when they were less than 2½ years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 231 races average 17.5 points below their career mean speed figure. This difference translates into seven lengths for a 6 furlong race. The speed figure difference is negative but smaller in size through age 3¼ years. Every category between 3¼ years and 5¾ years has a positive difference, indicating that horses typically run faster than their career mean between these ages. The peak difference occurs between ages 4¼ and 4½ when horses run 5 points faster than their career mean (two lengths faster for a 6 furlong sprint and three lengths faster for a one mile route). Beyond age 6¼, the speed figure differences are once again negative, because a typical horse is past his peak age and is consequently slowing down. Horses older than 9 years run an average 7.2 points slower than their career mean and 12.2 points slower than the peak age category. According to the table, horses improve by 22.5 points as young two-year-olds to the middle part of their four-year-old year and then decline by 12.2 points over the next five years. In sprint races this translates to a 9 length improvement to the peak and a 5 length decline. In route races it is a 14 length improvement to peak and a 7½ length decline. % Career Top SF is the percentage of horses that earned their career highest speed figure when they were the age of the corresponding category. 3% of the sample earned their best figure as a two-year-old. This increases to 22.9% as a three-year-old, 32.3% as a four-year-old, and 21.0% as a five-year-old. 79% of all horses in the sample earned their top speed figure below the age of six. Top SF is the best figure run by any horse in the corresponding age category.






(note: 20 is typo. It is meant to be >9)

The model assumes that horses have quadratic improvement up to the age of peak performance and experience a quadratic decline in racing ability past that age. Ray Fair in "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball" in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (vol 4, p1-39) develops a model for aging effects in baseball that is used here for race horses. Peak age is estimated to be 4.38 years. At age 2 a horse is predicted to be 28 points slower than at peak age. The improvement over the first two years is dramatic and the subsequent decline is more gradual. Predicted speed figure by age for the mean ability horse is depicted in the figure below.

I should've bet heavily on Zenyatta to win the BC Classic. Betting her would have been a hedge against my anticipated (and now realized) disappointment surrounding the Horse of the Year debate. Rachel Alexandra deserves to be Horse of the Year. If I had bet on Zenyatta, I'd have money in my wallet to ease the pain associated with the changing winds of the HOY debate. Of course if Z had lost I'd be poorer but the HOY would be Rachel in a landslide.

Rachel Alexandra now appears to be behind in the running for Horse of the Year despite a truly incredible campaign where she went 8 for 8 winning at 7 different tracks. Those eight wins included five Grade I wins and two Grade II wins. She won an American Classic (Preakness), beat the best of her generation of either sex and beat older horses, surviving brutal fractions to hang on by a nose in the Woodward. She won her five Grade Is by 46+ lengths. A list of the top ten performances of 2008 would include all five of her Grade I wins.

Zenyatta, on the other hand, had one big performance in the Breeders' Cup. Aside from that race her schedule was a repeat of her 2008 season - four repeat stakes wins, three of them Grade Is and all in California. It was very soft campaign and had none of the imagination of the handlers of Rachel (until the Classic). Zenyatta was a no show for her only scheduled start outside of California. Churchill Downs came up a bit muddy so they scratched. In the Breeders' Cup Classic she beat horses on an alien surface. As we have all learned, synthetic does not equal dirt or turf. Summer Bird on dirt does not equal Summer Bird on synthetic just like he wouldn't equal Summer Bird on turf. (Aside: If synthetics equal dirt then transitivity has RA > Z by two lengths since RA beat Summer Bird by 6 in the Haskell and Zenyatta beat him by 4 in the BC Classic).

So here were my thoughts on Saturday after the Classic.
Zenyatta beat the boys. Impressive win. She closed like a freight train. Looked like a typical turf race. Minor traffic issues. Excellent ride by Mike Smith. Great way to cap a career. 14 for 14. First ballot Hall of Famer for sure. Nice BC Cup moment.

What I did not expect was the post race build up of Zenyatta, crucifying of Jess Jackson, and belittling of Rachel Alexandra

Breeders' Cup President Greg Avioli -  "It was an electric atmosphere for two days and Zenyatta delivered what is arguably the greatest performance in the 26-year history of the event,"

I guess this is the kind of spin that comes from someone who has overseen two bloated and failed Breeders' Cup that have not struck a note with bettors or casual fans. Mark my words, betting on the 2010 Cup at Churchill Downs will be at least 30% greater than this year. I will do my part.

The other partners in Truxton Stables, casual racing fans, had no clue the Breeders' Cup was even being run last weekend. One of them called me literally right after Zenyatta crossed the finish line in the Classic. Was he inspired by the emotion of the moment to call his horse racing buddy to talk about her great performance and compare this year's Classic to other epic races? No, he called to talk Rice Owl Football and the timing of the call was a total coincidence.

Zenyatta had every chance to leave California and prove herself off the synthetics but instead she was winning the same races she'd won the year before. And yet it is Jess Jackson who has been raked over the coals for not taking Rachel Alexandra out west. Why should he? She is a dirt horse. I suppose he should be blamed for not running her in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic or the Forego or the Grand National Steeplechase. It has been forgotten that Rachel won races at seven different tracks in five different states. This is not a case of east coast bias - Rachel ran everywhere where there was a dirt track and a Grade I race. Zenyatta never left SoCal.

I'm sick of the Breeders' Cup and how it has ruined horse racing. If this were the pre-BC 1980s perhaps we'd have seen the major players competing against one another in the Woodward, Marlboro Cup, and Jockey Club Gold Cup over a six week period. Horses back then had sustained campaigns instead of protectively being prepared for a winner take all one race championship. 

And what of synthetics? I fear they will never go away. They are further segmenting a sport where champions so rarely run against one another. America is steeped in a long tradition of dirt racing. Our great champions excelled on the dirt. It is amazing that we can throw away all that tradition for the public relations gain from the unsubstantiated greater safety of synthetics. All the industry is concerned about is PR. The industry is trying to placate those who will never care about the sport much less bet any money on it. And next big issue is restricting the use of the whip? Gimme a break.  (But maybe I'm wrong. The industry doesn't need care about bettors. They need to care about politicians and voters. And the politicians and voter might not want the horseys to get whipped or end up as food for some Euro. Them politicians can give the industry a slot machine monopoly so they won't have to worry about bettors like me ... Time to take a deep breath. This is another argument for another day).

Is Vale of York the winner book favorite for the Kentucky Derby after winning the Juvenile? What a frickin' joke.

I suppose I'm just old school. Give me an all dirt card. The more routes the better. 

I suppose I'll watch the Breeders' Cup and maybe even bet a few races but I just haven't been able to get excited about it. Last year I was hostile to the idea of a Breeders' Cup run on a synthetic surface and gloated in the fact that handle numbers were down. This year I just don't care. I've started to sour on the idea of the Breeders' Cup on any surface since it promotes one championship performance instead of a sustained campaign. This has translated into Eclipse awards for horses with just a handful of starts and sometimes only one outstanding performance (in the Breeders' Cup).

I have vowed to bet the Breeders' Cup heavily when it returns to Churchill Downs in 2010 and hope to be there in person. Last year I took my $2000 bankroll and bought a few stocks instead of betting the races. As of today my bankroll is valued at $3,734, an 86.7% return (vs the S&P 500 which is up 21.6%). I will put another $2000 representing this year's bankroll into the market on Monday. My plan is to cash out a week before the '10 Breeders' Cup and bet it all at Churchill Downs.