In a few hours I'm going to hit the road to take in racing at Churchill Downs. Night racing on Friday is enticing not so much because of all the festivities at the track but that it allows me to take in two race cards despite being able to spend only a little more than a day in Louisville.

Three good reasons to be at the track on Saturday -

Truxton Stables' Big Striker makes his career debut in the second race going 6 1/2 furlongs against $10,000 maiden claimers. Former meth addict Greta Kuntzweiler is in the irons.

Aunt Dot Dot's half sister Global Gala (by Distorted Humor) runs in the 8th race, an N1X allowance race over a mile.

Sting James, a Giacomo 2yo, runs in the 7th race, a 6f Md Sp Wt. Giacomo has two stakes horses, but very few other runners. He has fallen to 3rd on the first crop sire list. Sting James will be a longshot but is worht a flyer.

Bettors only put $320,707 into tonight's Churchill Downs Pick Six which was seeded with $114,650 of carryover money. Hopefully you got some money down because it is a solid positive expectations play. Players will get back $374k on $320k wagered for an expected return of $1.17 per dollar bet. That is better than both the post-Derby ($1.11) and post-Belmont ($1.02) Pick Six carryovers. I need three singles (2-8-3) to get home to hit the thing.  

With $930,495 carried over from Belmont Stakes day, the Pick 6 will receive heavy action on Wednesday despite a lousy sequence of races - three turf sprints, three statebred races, a five horse optional claimer (not seven races -- the 6th race is a turf sprint for statebred maiden claimers).

Wednesday's Pick 6 will be a positive expectations play if less than $3,578,827 is wagered. Belmont's takeout on the Pick 6 is 26%. 

The less that is wagered, the bigger the edge for players. If $3 million is bet, players will have a 5.0% edge, If $2 million is bet, players will have a 20.5% edge.  

How does this compare to some other big carryovers this year?
Beulah Park Fortune 6 carryover on May 1st 
$445,139 carryover
Takeout 22.5%
Amount bet into pool $704,691 
Amount returned to bettors $991,274 

Edge 40.7%
 
Churchill Downs Pick 6 carryover on May 6th

Giacomo!

with $94,193 in total earnings. Yesterday Lady Giacomo become a stakes winner, earning $39,654 for her win in the TTA Sales Futurity. Blushing Sis finished third in the same race to pick up $6,609. The additional $46k from these two fillies vaulted Giacomo temporarily into 1st place among first crop sires, $9k ahead of Bluegrass Cat. We'll see how long it lasts, Hopefully until the end of the year.

PREAKNESS
12 Dublin
7 Lookin at Lucky
6 Jackson Bend

I'll be rooting for Super Saver but betting against him.

Pimlico

Derby Selections
First 7 American Lion
Second 1 Lookin at Lucky
Third 16 Awesome Act
Fourth 15 Discretely Mine

Derby Day Bets
8th race - $193.50
$0.50 Pick Four 3/1,7,12/ALL/7 ($13.50)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,10/1,7.12/3,5,6,7,8,9/7 ($27)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,10/12/ALL/7 ($13.50)
$0.50 Pick Four ALL/12/3/7 ($5)
$0.50 Pick Four 3/ALL/3/7 ($6.50)
$0.50 Pick Four 6/12/3.5.6.7.8.9/1,4,11,12,14,15,20 ($21)
$0.50 Pick Four 6/1,7/3/1,4,11,12,14,15,20 ($7)
$40 Win/Place 6 Pretty Prolific ($80)
$8 Exacta Box 3 Informed Decision, 6 Pretty Prolfic ($16)
$2 Exacta Box 3 Informed Decision, 10 Mona de Momma ($4)

11th race - $494
$200 Win/Place 7 American Lion
$10 Exacta 7/1,4,11,16 ($40)
$6 Exacta 1,4,11,16/7 ($24)
$4 Exacta 7/10,12,14,15,20 ($20)
$2 Exacta 10,12,14,15,20/7 ($10)

Total - $687.50

Good Luck!

Last day of class tomorrow, Senior Economics major party tomorrow night (40+ guests), Derby party Saturday (100 adults, 50 kids). Crazy busy but on the cusp of summer break.

My Oaks day wagers ($581)
Race 1 - $14
$10 Double 8 Diamond Song/7 Azurite
$4 Double 8 Diamond Song/9 Shirley She Can

Race 2 - $50
$30 Win 7 Azurite
$10 Exacta Box 7 Azurite, 9 Shirley She Can

Race 4 - $49
$0.50 Pick Four 4,10/ALL/4/7 ($12)
$0.50 Pick Four 4,10,11/3,4,6,8,11/4/2,7 ($15)
$2 Exacta Box 4 Elusive Jozi, 10 Funny Feeling, 11 Fuzy Britches ($12)
$5 Exacta 11 Fuzzy Britches/4 Elusive Jozi, 10 Funny Feeling ($10)

Race 6 - $50
$50 Exacta 4 Rachel Alexandra/5 Unrivaled Belle

Race 7 - $30
$30 Exacta 7 Nina Fever/2 Lou Brissie

Race 8 - $41
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/6,8/4,5/5 ($6)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/6,8/4/1,5,13 ($9)
$0.50 Pick Four ALL/6,8/4/5 ($11)
$0.50 Pick Four 3,6,7/8/ALL/5 ($15) 

Race 9 - $75
$50 Win 8 Flying Private
$20 Double 8 Flying Private/4 Lost Aptitude
$5 Double 8 Flying Private/5 Strike the Tiger

Race 10 - $32
$20 Win 4 Lost Aptitude
$5 Exacta Box 4 Lost Aptitude, 5 Strike the Tiger ($10)
$2 Pick Three 4/5/6

Race 11 - $230
$200 Win 5 Blind Luck
$10 Exacta 5/1,6,13 ($30)

Race 12 - $10
$10 Win 6 Hottie Dancer

A sad day. Dick Francis wrote 42 horse racing related mysteries and was a champion jump jockey. I've read over half his books and always read one when I'm on the road. My favorites - For Kicks (1965), Bonecrack (1971), Straight (1989), and To the Hilt (1996).

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. (AP)—Oaklawn Park is throwing $5 million at star females Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to meet for the first time at the Apple Blossom in April.

The racetrack in Hot Springs announced Thursday that the owners of both champion horses are receptive to the idea. No firm commitments have been made.

“This is an event of a lifetime,” said Pat Pope, Oaklawn’s racing secretary. “We’re going to do everything to bring them to the state of Arkansas.”

Rachel Alexandra won 2009 Horse of the Year honors over Zenyatta. The 4-year-old Rachel and 6-year-old Zenyatta have never met on the track to settle who is the best.

Oaklawn said the $5 million purse will be offered only if both horses enter. If not, the purse will revert to $500,000 as initially planned.

No matter who is in the field, the Apple Blossom distance has been increased from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Rachel Alexandra is training at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Her first race this year is undetermined. She went 8-0 last year, including the Preakness and two other wins against male horses.

Zenyatta had been off to retirement after capping a 14-0 career with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But now she’s back for another year and might run in the Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita on March 13.

Zenyatta, who won the 2008 Apple Blossom, is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, and trained by John Shirreffs. Rachel, who won twice at Oaklawn last year, is owned by Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick and trained by the nation’s top trainer Steve Asmussen.

“My family and I would love to see her run at Oaklawn Park. If she is in top form and it fits in our schedule, we will be there,” Jackson said. “As you have heard me say many times before, a number of factors must be considered when deciding where to race a horse—the number one factor being the condition of the horse. Rachel will tell us when she is ready to start her 2010 campaign and we humans must agree she is in top form.”