Big carryover at Belmont
With $930,495 carried over from Belmont Stakes day, the Pick 6 will receive heavy action on Wednesday despite a lousy sequence of races - three turf sprints, three statebred races, a five horse optional claimer (not seven races -- the 6th race is a turf sprint for statebred maiden claimers).
Wednesday's Pick 6 will be a positive expectations play if less than $3,578,827 is wagered. Belmont's takeout on the Pick 6 is 26%.
The less that is wagered, the bigger the edge for players. If $3 million is bet, players will have a 5.0% edge, If $2 million is bet, players will have a 20.5% edge.
How does this compare to some other big carryovers this year?
Beulah Park Fortune 6 carryover on May 1st
$445,139 carryover
Takeout 22.5%
Amount bet into pool $704,691
Amount returned to bettors $991,274
Edge 40.7%
Churchill Downs Pick 6 carryover on May 6th
$947,641 carryover
Takeout 19%
Amount bet into pool - $3,138,615
Amount bet into pool - $3,138,615
Amount returned to bettors - $3,489,919
Edge 11.2%
If Churchill Downs had Belmont's 26% takeout, the edge would be cut down to 4.3%.
Edge 11.2%
If Churchill Downs had Belmont's 26% takeout, the edge would be cut down to 4.3%.
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