Betting jumpers
This Saturday is the $250k Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in New Jersey and the six race card is available to simulcast bettors. To my knowledge this is a first for an NSA meet. I enjoy the Steeplechase racing though I admit I have very little knowledge about how to handicap jumpers. My hope is that my betting competition has little idea what to do either.
So here are my betting strategies (for what they are worth)
1. Don't be afraid to bet favorites. When there is greater uncertainty you should be more inclined to bet favorites. Why? Uncertainty leads to a more even distribution of betting dollars across entrants making favorites overlays.
2a. Go with successful trainers and jockeys.
2b. When in doubt bet Tommy Voss. He is a force at Saratoga. Will that transfer to Fair Hills?
3. Look for horses that have run well at Far Hills. "Horses for courses" is magnified given the differences in each hunt meet's track configuration.
4. Look for recent form. 2+ miles is a long way to run. Can they get the distance while jumping barriers? Not without a solid foundation.
5. Pedigree matters - look for stoutly bred runners. Roberto's sons area a good place to start.
Race 1 - The Peapack Guelph Hurdle, Fillies and Mares, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000
#1 Moon Dolly (3-1) and #4 Dynaskill (9-5) have faced each other three times with Moon Dolly finishing ahead of Dynaskill twice. Dynaskill, however, took the big prize - The Margaret Curry Sport of Queens Stakes in Nashville. In what is basically glorified N1X for filly jumpers, take Molly Dolly. She'll be the bigger price. Also box'em.
Race 2 - The Harry E. Harris Madien Hurdle, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000
I know this is only a maiden race but there are some major players here. That is major flat racing players. '06 York Stakes (G1) winner Best Attack is in the field. Steppenwolfer, who finished 3rd in the Derby behind Barbaro, makes his debut over the jumps. Kenny McPeek has one in here with top jockey Xavier Aizpuru. Underlays, all of them. I'll work angle #2 and #5 and take #10 Ambersham (4-1) and #12 Arch Hero (15-1). Jack Fisher and Tommy Voss are both top notch trainers and both horses are from the Roberto sire line.
Race 3 - The Appleton Starter Hurdle, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000, Restricted to horses that have started for a $30k tag
Tough race. I landed on #7 Slip Away (3-1) because he faced tough competition this summer on racetrack circuit. He was favorite in four consecutive stakes races at Colonial, Saratoga, and Monmouth, but only won one. Earlier in the year he won six in a row at a tag or in starter races and made it seven straight in the Zeke Ferguson Memorial at Colonial. He then lost as favorite in both of Saratoga's Grade Is. In the Turf Writers he built a big lead but didn't finish. Let's hope speed carries Far Hills. Beneath him take #8 Cradle Will Rock (8-1) and #14 Chivite, the third and fourth place finishers in the G1 Iroquois behind Pierrot Lunaire and Good Night Shirt.
Race 4 - The Foxbrook Champion Hurdle, 2 1/2 miles, $100,000, Non winners over hurdles prior to 6/1/08 or N2L
#6 Left Unsaid (3-1) - Voss, Dynaformer (by Roberto), novice stakes winner at Saratoga.
Race #5 The Grand National, 2 5/8 miles, $250,000
#3 Pierrot Lunaire (9-5) towers over this field and if I get the morning line I'll pound him. He beat '07 and '08 Steeplechase Eclipse winner Good Night Shirt in the G1 Iroquois after shipping from the UK where he won a G2 novice hurdle last April, beating a 13 others by 14 lengths. There are three other '09 G1 winners in the field. #8 Spy in the Sky (15-1) and #13 Red Letter Day (10-1) are both very inconsistent. Their G1 wins appear to be one-time flukes - Spy in the Sky was 20-1 in winning the Turf Writers and Red Letter Day was 21-1 in the Lonesome Glory. They also typically go about a year between wins. Pass. #11 Mixed Up (8-1), winner of the A.P. Smithwick, does like to win (11 of 28 over the jumps) but since the Smithwick he has run two clunkers and might be tailing off. The others?
#1 General Ledger - Mediocre British hurdler and that is now a mediocre Scandinavian hurdler. Does have a win at an unknown track in Sweden.
#2 Sweet Shani - Third behind Good Night Shirt and Best Attack in the Iroquois in '08. Hasn't run since.
#4 Three Carat - Makes a few starts then spends a few years on the shelf. His last was a decent effort in off a two year layoff but faces better here.
#5 Triple Dip - Last race almost a year ago.
#6 Swagger Stick - Horse for course? Won last year's Foxbrook Champion Hurdle at Fair Hills and is morning line 20-1. Use underneath Pierrot Lunaire.
#7 Tax Ruling - Should be on or near the lead but 21 furlongs is a few too many.
#9 Arcadius - Ran a decent third in the Lonesome Glory but picks up 18 pounds and an extra furlong.
#10 Your Sum Man - In this Irish import's last start he fell and in his two starts before that he was beaten by a combined 100 lengths.
#12 Best Attack - 0 for 8 in Grade I races. Lousy '09 campaign: 0 for 3 and never close.
#14 Sermon of Love - Jonathan Sheppard took this horse from a win in the hurdles at Penn National to a flat racing Md Sp Wt win at Saratoga going a 1 1/2 miles. He earned an 80 speed figure so perhaps they should run him back on the turf. Over the hurdles he is 2 for 20.
Race #6 Gladstone Hurdle for 3yo
Not many 3yo jumpers so very few starts for these. #2 Class Classic is the only winner in the race and six horses he beat also show up here. A number of horses in this race aren't bred to go long. Many are looking for a successful career change after floundering in flat races. The two horses that probably were meant for hurdles all along are #7 Farndale (10-1), a Tommy Voss firster, and #9 Class Century (3-1), who made his racing debut over hurdles, finishing a game second against older horse.
Where can you bet Far Hills?
twinspires.com and youbet.com will both carry the card. Woodbine will be hosting the parimutuel pools for the card so avoid the Triactor. Up north they give the trifecta a funny name and gouge bettors with a 28.3% takeout rate on it. Win/Place/Show is 17% and the Exactor (is that a bet or a superhero?) is 21%.
By the way, The NSA has started its own ADW, Jump2bet. Perhaps horsemens groups should follow their lead and start their own ADW since they are convinced that the ADWs enjoy excess profits as a result of agreements made before the explosion of simulcasting. Why not get you some of 'em excess profits?
Good luck! Anyone got any insights let me know.
Update: Argh! It looks like none of the four ADW where I have accounts will carry Far Hills. Also, I don't get Universal Sports Network so I won't be able to watch the races on TV. It's too late to fund a Jump2bet account so I guess I'm out of luck. I've been thwarted in my attempt to throw away money on the jumpers.
Update 2: Live Video
So here are my betting strategies (for what they are worth)
1. Don't be afraid to bet favorites. When there is greater uncertainty you should be more inclined to bet favorites. Why? Uncertainty leads to a more even distribution of betting dollars across entrants making favorites overlays.
2a. Go with successful trainers and jockeys.
2b. When in doubt bet Tommy Voss. He is a force at Saratoga. Will that transfer to Fair Hills?
3. Look for horses that have run well at Far Hills. "Horses for courses" is magnified given the differences in each hunt meet's track configuration.
4. Look for recent form. 2+ miles is a long way to run. Can they get the distance while jumping barriers? Not without a solid foundation.
5. Pedigree matters - look for stoutly bred runners. Roberto's sons area a good place to start.
Race 1 - The Peapack Guelph Hurdle, Fillies and Mares, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000
#1 Moon Dolly (3-1) and #4 Dynaskill (9-5) have faced each other three times with Moon Dolly finishing ahead of Dynaskill twice. Dynaskill, however, took the big prize - The Margaret Curry Sport of Queens Stakes in Nashville. In what is basically glorified N1X for filly jumpers, take Molly Dolly. She'll be the bigger price. Also box'em.
Race 2 - The Harry E. Harris Madien Hurdle, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000
I know this is only a maiden race but there are some major players here. That is major flat racing players. '06 York Stakes (G1) winner Best Attack is in the field. Steppenwolfer, who finished 3rd in the Derby behind Barbaro, makes his debut over the jumps. Kenny McPeek has one in here with top jockey Xavier Aizpuru. Underlays, all of them. I'll work angle #2 and #5 and take #10 Ambersham (4-1) and #12 Arch Hero (15-1). Jack Fisher and Tommy Voss are both top notch trainers and both horses are from the Roberto sire line.
Race 3 - The Appleton Starter Hurdle, 2 1/8 miles, $50,000, Restricted to horses that have started for a $30k tag
Tough race. I landed on #7 Slip Away (3-1) because he faced tough competition this summer on racetrack circuit. He was favorite in four consecutive stakes races at Colonial, Saratoga, and Monmouth, but only won one. Earlier in the year he won six in a row at a tag or in starter races and made it seven straight in the Zeke Ferguson Memorial at Colonial. He then lost as favorite in both of Saratoga's Grade Is. In the Turf Writers he built a big lead but didn't finish. Let's hope speed carries Far Hills. Beneath him take #8 Cradle Will Rock (8-1) and #14 Chivite, the third and fourth place finishers in the G1 Iroquois behind Pierrot Lunaire and Good Night Shirt.
Race 4 - The Foxbrook Champion Hurdle, 2 1/2 miles, $100,000, Non winners over hurdles prior to 6/1/08 or N2L
#6 Left Unsaid (3-1) - Voss, Dynaformer (by Roberto), novice stakes winner at Saratoga.
Race #5 The Grand National, 2 5/8 miles, $250,000
#3 Pierrot Lunaire (9-5) towers over this field and if I get the morning line I'll pound him. He beat '07 and '08 Steeplechase Eclipse winner Good Night Shirt in the G1 Iroquois after shipping from the UK where he won a G2 novice hurdle last April, beating a 13 others by 14 lengths. There are three other '09 G1 winners in the field. #8 Spy in the Sky (15-1) and #13 Red Letter Day (10-1) are both very inconsistent. Their G1 wins appear to be one-time flukes - Spy in the Sky was 20-1 in winning the Turf Writers and Red Letter Day was 21-1 in the Lonesome Glory. They also typically go about a year between wins. Pass. #11 Mixed Up (8-1), winner of the A.P. Smithwick, does like to win (11 of 28 over the jumps) but since the Smithwick he has run two clunkers and might be tailing off. The others?
#1 General Ledger - Mediocre British hurdler and that is now a mediocre Scandinavian hurdler. Does have a win at an unknown track in Sweden.
#2 Sweet Shani - Third behind Good Night Shirt and Best Attack in the Iroquois in '08. Hasn't run since.
#4 Three Carat - Makes a few starts then spends a few years on the shelf. His last was a decent effort in off a two year layoff but faces better here.
#5 Triple Dip - Last race almost a year ago.
#6 Swagger Stick - Horse for course? Won last year's Foxbrook Champion Hurdle at Fair Hills and is morning line 20-1. Use underneath Pierrot Lunaire.
#7 Tax Ruling - Should be on or near the lead but 21 furlongs is a few too many.
#9 Arcadius - Ran a decent third in the Lonesome Glory but picks up 18 pounds and an extra furlong.
#10 Your Sum Man - In this Irish import's last start he fell and in his two starts before that he was beaten by a combined 100 lengths.
#12 Best Attack - 0 for 8 in Grade I races. Lousy '09 campaign: 0 for 3 and never close.
#14 Sermon of Love - Jonathan Sheppard took this horse from a win in the hurdles at Penn National to a flat racing Md Sp Wt win at Saratoga going a 1 1/2 miles. He earned an 80 speed figure so perhaps they should run him back on the turf. Over the hurdles he is 2 for 20.
Race #6 Gladstone Hurdle for 3yo
Not many 3yo jumpers so very few starts for these. #2 Class Classic is the only winner in the race and six horses he beat also show up here. A number of horses in this race aren't bred to go long. Many are looking for a successful career change after floundering in flat races. The two horses that probably were meant for hurdles all along are #7 Farndale (10-1), a Tommy Voss firster, and #9 Class Century (3-1), who made his racing debut over hurdles, finishing a game second against older horse.
Where can you bet Far Hills?
twinspires.com and youbet.com will both carry the card. Woodbine will be hosting the parimutuel pools for the card so avoid the Triactor. Up north they give the trifecta a funny name and gouge bettors with a 28.3% takeout rate on it. Win/Place/Show is 17% and the Exactor (is that a bet or a superhero?) is 21%.
By the way, The NSA has started its own ADW, Jump2bet. Perhaps horsemens groups should follow their lead and start their own ADW since they are convinced that the ADWs enjoy excess profits as a result of agreements made before the explosion of simulcasting. Why not get you some of 'em excess profits?
Good luck! Anyone got any insights let me know.
Update: Argh! It looks like none of the four ADW where I have accounts will carry Far Hills. Also, I don't get Universal Sports Network so I won't be able to watch the races on TV. It's too late to fund a Jump2bet account so I guess I'm out of luck. I've been thwarted in my attempt to throw away money on the jumpers.
Update 2: Live Video
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