All sorts of stamina
Once again a Derby winner did not fall below the dosage threshold of 4.00. The dosage theory of breeding establishes a score which has predictive power for the distance aptitude of a horse. This score is based on prominent stallions (called chefs-de-race) within the first four generations of the horse. A higher score indicates breeding tilted to sprinting. The cut off for a Derby horse stated to be 4.00 and every winner from 1940 to 1991 meet the criteria. Dosage theory gained prominence when Derby favorites Chief's Crown (85) and Snow Chief (86) failed to meet the cutoff and subsequently lost. In 1991 Strike the Gold won the Derby with a dosage of 9 (though the number was revised to 2.60 when his sire Alydar was recognized as a chef with a Classic influence). Since then we have had four more winners above the cutoff - Real Quiet (5.29), Charismatic (5.22), Giacomo (4.33) and this year Mine That Bird (5.40). Steve Roman, the creator of modern dosage theory discusses these results here.
In my opinion dosage is a wonderful place to start but it takes many years for a stallion to establish himself as a chef-de-race. Therefore an evaluation of the balance between brilliance and stamina must take into account non-chefs in the pedigree. Doing so involves guesswork and speculation. Mine That Bird has two chefs in his third generation and four in his fourth generation (he is inbred 4 x 4 to Northern Dancer so it is really only three chefs). In the third generation, Unbridled is Brilliant/Intermediate and Mr. Prospector is Brilliant/Classic. In the fourth generation Northern Dancer is Brilliant/Classic, Raise a Native is Brilliant, and Fappiano is Intermediate/Classic. His dosage profile is 8-3-5-0-0 for a 5.40. He has no solid or professional points (stamina influences). His profile is that of a sprinter.
When I view Mine That Bird's pedigree I see a 10-12 furlong horse. If Mine That Bird can some how win the Preakness he has a great shot to complete the sweep. Smarty Jones and Big Brown were fundamentally milers in terms of their breeding whereas on paper Mine That Bird can run all day.
Let's look at his immediate family
Birdstone (Sire) - Grade I winner at 2 and 3. Average Winning Distance of 8.96 furlongs. Won the Travers at 1 1/4 and the Belmont at 1 1/2. First crop sire. His other Derby runner Summer Bird was running with Mine That Bird around the turn but was taken to the outside and finished sixth. He closed well but was extremely wide.
Grindstone (Sire of Sire) - Won Kentucky Derby and Louisiana Derby. Average Winning Distance of 7.83 furlongs. Progeny AWD 7.22 furlongs.
Smart Strike (Broodmare Sire) - Won 6 of 8 lifetime including the Grade I Philip H. Iselin at 1 1/16. Average Winning Distance 7.92. Smart Strike's two full sisters, Strike Smartly and Full of Wonder, were both graded stakes winners and had AWD of 9.30 and 9.50 respectively. The AWD of Smart Strike progeny is a robust 7.45 furlongs. Smart Strike's most notable son is multiple Horse of the Year and Preakness winner Curlin.
Mining My Own (1st dam) - Unraced
Aspanelle (2nd dam) - Stakes placed. Winner of 2 of 4 with an AWD of 8.5f.
In my opinion dosage is a wonderful place to start but it takes many years for a stallion to establish himself as a chef-de-race. Therefore an evaluation of the balance between brilliance and stamina must take into account non-chefs in the pedigree. Doing so involves guesswork and speculation. Mine That Bird has two chefs in his third generation and four in his fourth generation (he is inbred 4 x 4 to Northern Dancer so it is really only three chefs). In the third generation, Unbridled is Brilliant/Intermediate and Mr. Prospector is Brilliant/Classic. In the fourth generation Northern Dancer is Brilliant/Classic, Raise a Native is Brilliant, and Fappiano is Intermediate/Classic. His dosage profile is 8-3-5-0-0 for a 5.40. He has no solid or professional points (stamina influences). His profile is that of a sprinter.
When I view Mine That Bird's pedigree I see a 10-12 furlong horse. If Mine That Bird can some how win the Preakness he has a great shot to complete the sweep. Smarty Jones and Big Brown were fundamentally milers in terms of their breeding whereas on paper Mine That Bird can run all day.
Let's look at his immediate family
Birdstone (Sire) - Grade I winner at 2 and 3. Average Winning Distance of 8.96 furlongs. Won the Travers at 1 1/4 and the Belmont at 1 1/2. First crop sire. His other Derby runner Summer Bird was running with Mine That Bird around the turn but was taken to the outside and finished sixth. He closed well but was extremely wide.
Grindstone (Sire of Sire) - Won Kentucky Derby and Louisiana Derby. Average Winning Distance of 7.83 furlongs. Progeny AWD 7.22 furlongs.
Smart Strike (Broodmare Sire) - Won 6 of 8 lifetime including the Grade I Philip H. Iselin at 1 1/16. Average Winning Distance 7.92. Smart Strike's two full sisters, Strike Smartly and Full of Wonder, were both graded stakes winners and had AWD of 9.30 and 9.50 respectively. The AWD of Smart Strike progeny is a robust 7.45 furlongs. Smart Strike's most notable son is multiple Horse of the Year and Preakness winner Curlin.
Mining My Own (1st dam) - Unraced
Aspanelle (2nd dam) - Stakes placed. Winner of 2 of 4 with an AWD of 8.5f.
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