Predictions
From Steve Levitt in his annual Kentucky Derby predictions on Freakomics (May 1)
If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.
From Steve Crist's blog (April 29)
Also, a longstanding (and perhaps misguided) sense of propriety prevents track linemakers from making horses more than 50-1, even though the bottom six in this year's race are all eligible to go off much higher. If nothing else, the prices on these horses illustrates just how much money is bet literally at random. Thereis simply no way for a rational person to believe that Atomic Rain, Join in the Dance or Mine That Bird can win the race. I mean, have you looked at Mine That Bird's past performances? The much-maligned Giacomo, on his pre-Derby form, looks like a 1-9 shot against him.
Can't blame either of these guys. Mine the Bird would've been easy favorite to finish last.
If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.
From Steve Crist's blog (April 29)
Also, a longstanding (and perhaps misguided) sense of propriety prevents track linemakers from making horses more than 50-1, even though the bottom six in this year's race are all eligible to go off much higher. If nothing else, the prices on these horses illustrates just how much money is bet literally at random. Thereis simply no way for a rational person to believe that Atomic Rain, Join in the Dance or Mine That Bird can win the race. I mean, have you looked at Mine That Bird's past performances? The much-maligned Giacomo, on his pre-Derby form, looks like a 1-9 shot against him.
Can't blame either of these guys. Mine the Bird would've been easy favorite to finish last.
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