Synthetics/Adriano/other thoughts
Two weeks out from the Derby. A little more than a week left of classes. I am ready to sleep again (do I blame my new preps or my six month old who wakes up three times a night).
Anyway here are some things that have I have been tossing around in my head.
- This fatality rate study for synthetics versus dirt is very interesting to me. Initial findings (released in March) were that the deaths per 1000 starts were virtually identical - 1.97 for dirt and 1.95 for synthetics. The researcher, Mary Scollay, a Florida veterinarian, was disappointed in the findings. Just a few days ago there were corrected numbers released showing 2.02 fatalities per 1000 starts on dirt versus 1.47 fatalities per 1000 starts on synthetic. The Jockey Club stated it'll be another year before new numbers will be released.
So here is what we have. Initial findings were disappointing so find a way to tweak the numbers and then keep results to yourself for another year. Very fishy. Do you think they'd let me look at their data? I'm going to find out.
Thoughbred Times article
- Keeneland is experiencing a dramatic drop in handle (drf.com article). Think that it might be the poly? Favorites winning every race is no fun but odds-on horses finishing off the board repeatedly is the sign of strange things. Was it Bob Baffert who said that the Poly makes good horses mediocre and mediocre horses good?
- Adriano is Derby bound with Edgar Prado aboard. Adriano is a dirt horse by pedigree - AP Indy out of a Mr Prospector mare. His second dam Golden Treat won the Santa Anita Oaks and is a half sister to Belmont Stakes winner Bet Twice. Adriano has had success on the poly and the turf and his one dirt race is a complete toss. He is my Derby horse - and I am going to get a good price.
- these likely Derby runners ain't staying 10 furlongs: War Pass, Gayego, Tale of Ekati, Bob Black Jack, Eight Belles, Recapturetheglory, Smooth Air, and Big Truck.
- these likely Derby runners will run all day: Colonel John, Pyro, Court Vision, Cool Coal Man, Adriano, Anak Nakal
- I hate the poly but I love the fact that that Keeneland is running a $100,000 stakes at 1 5/8 miles. My old favorite Successful Affair (by sprinter Successful Appeal) is shipping from New York to run in the Fort Harrod
- Look for Indescribable to surprise Panty Raid in the Doubledogdare at Keeneland (ok, you probably want to toss her given my record at Keeneland, but I'm going to back her).
Anyway here are some things that have I have been tossing around in my head.
- This fatality rate study for synthetics versus dirt is very interesting to me. Initial findings (released in March) were that the deaths per 1000 starts were virtually identical - 1.97 for dirt and 1.95 for synthetics. The researcher, Mary Scollay, a Florida veterinarian, was disappointed in the findings. Just a few days ago there were corrected numbers released showing 2.02 fatalities per 1000 starts on dirt versus 1.47 fatalities per 1000 starts on synthetic. The Jockey Club stated it'll be another year before new numbers will be released.
So here is what we have. Initial findings were disappointing so find a way to tweak the numbers and then keep results to yourself for another year. Very fishy. Do you think they'd let me look at their data? I'm going to find out.
Thoughbred Times article
- Keeneland is experiencing a dramatic drop in handle (drf.com article). Think that it might be the poly? Favorites winning every race is no fun but odds-on horses finishing off the board repeatedly is the sign of strange things. Was it Bob Baffert who said that the Poly makes good horses mediocre and mediocre horses good?
- Adriano is Derby bound with Edgar Prado aboard. Adriano is a dirt horse by pedigree - AP Indy out of a Mr Prospector mare. His second dam Golden Treat won the Santa Anita Oaks and is a half sister to Belmont Stakes winner Bet Twice. Adriano has had success on the poly and the turf and his one dirt race is a complete toss. He is my Derby horse - and I am going to get a good price.
- these likely Derby runners ain't staying 10 furlongs: War Pass, Gayego, Tale of Ekati, Bob Black Jack, Eight Belles, Recapturetheglory, Smooth Air, and Big Truck.
- these likely Derby runners will run all day: Colonel John, Pyro, Court Vision, Cool Coal Man, Adriano, Anak Nakal
- I hate the poly but I love the fact that that Keeneland is running a $100,000 stakes at 1 5/8 miles. My old favorite Successful Affair (by sprinter Successful Appeal) is shipping from New York to run in the Fort Harrod
- Look for Indescribable to surprise Panty Raid in the Doubledogdare at Keeneland (ok, you probably want to toss her given my record at Keeneland, but I'm going to back her).
Comments