BC Thoughts
| Race | Horse | Distance | Time | Beyer |
| Juv Fillies | Indian Blessing | 8.5 | 1:44.73 | 95 |
| Juv | War Pass | 8.5 | 1:42.76 | 113 |
| F&M Turf | Lahudood | 11T | 2:22.75 | 105 |
| Sprint | Midnight Lute | 6 | 1:09.18 | 108 |
| Mile | Kip Deville | 8T | 1:39.78 | 108 |
| Distaff | Ginger Punch | 9 | 1:50.11 | 104 |
| Turf | English Channel | 12T | 2:36.96 | 111 |
| Classic | Curlin | 10 | 2:00.59 | 119 |
I don't know how they can make speed figures from the three turf races Saturday, given the sample size, pace, and conditions.
War Pass' Beyer figure of 113 earned in the Juvenile is faster than Street Sense's 110 last year. Based on that speed figure Street Sense was weighted 127 in the Experimental Free Handicap much to my dismay. War Pass should be at least 128 given his Champagne and BC victories. Hopefully he and Pyro (who ran a 105) will be around next year to compete in the Triple Crown races. It is going to be hard to match the quality of this year's sophomore crop, but with the end of the BC, the Triple Crown trail begins.
Speaking of the 3yos, here is how I would rank them based on their 2007 races
1. Curlin (Preakness, BC Classic, JCGC, Arkansas Derby, Rebel, 2nd Belmont, 3rd Derby, 3rd H askell)
2. Street Sense (Derby, Travers, Jim Dandy, Tampa Bay Derby, 2nd Preakness, 2nd Blue Grass)
3. Rags to Riches (Belmont, KY Oaks, Santa Anita Oaks)
4. Hard Spun (King's Bishop, KY Cup Classic, Lane's End, 2nd Derby, 2nd Haskell, 3rd Preakness)
5. Nobiz Like Shobiz (Wood, Hall of Fame, Jamaica, Kent BC, 2nd, Dwyer, 3rd FOY)
6 Any Given Saturday (Haskell, Dwyer, Brooklyn, 2nd Tampa Bay Derby, 3rd Wood)
7. Tiago (Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood, Swaps, 3rd Belmont)
8. Scat Daddy (Florida Derby, FOY, 3rd Holy Bull)
Overall, what a phenomenal group of horses. Let's hope we see a few of these next year. Curlin, while being by leading sire Smart Strike, doesn't have much of a female family (before being bred to Smart Strike, his dam was bred twice to $1k Texas sire Excellent Secret). Not running/winning as a 2yo also hurts. Even so, it is hard to imagine him surpassing his 2007 season. Tiago and Nobiz Like Shobiz should probably come back based on their sire's marketability (or lack there of - Pleasant Tap and Albert the Great). I would like to see Nobiz on dirt again - he could be that rare individual who excels on both surfaces.
Some idiot Euro is whining about the Monmouth surface and stating that all future BC should be run on synthetic surfaces. Perhaps he missed ESPN's telecast from Keeneland where horses multiple horses broke down on a sunny pleasant day. Is there any conclusive evidence that synthetic surfaces are safer than dirt? Please forward if found.
There was a 20% drop in BC wagering. Officials blame the weather.
Let’s look at the impact of weather on Kentucky Derby Day wagering for a comparison
2004 Track Sloppy, Rain 0.65”, total all sources handle increased by 1.8% (previous year’s growth was 13.9%)
1994 Track Sloppy, Rain 0.43”, total all sources handle increased by 12.3% (previous year’s growth was 20.5%)
1989 Track Muddy, Rain 0.90”, total all sources handle fell by 10.0% (previous year’s growth was 19.2%)
What I don’t know is the number of races on the Derby Day card each year. An increase in the number of races might increase total handle while reducing per race handle. For example people wagered as much on the 11 Breeders’ Cup races this year as they did at Churchill Downs last year on the 8 Breeders’ Cup race.
I thought Trevor Denman did a terrific job calling the races and was every bit as good this year as he was bad last year.
Hooray for the connections of Hard Spun who took a risk by entering him in the Classic despite the fact that he did not appear to be a 10 furlong horse and seemed to be a cut below the other top 3yos. His $1,000,000 earned for second place was as much as the entire purse for the Dirt Mile.
Speaking of the Dirt Mile, it drew eight horse. In the last 12 months, two were Grade I winners (Discreet Cat, Corinthian), two were Grade II winners (Lewis Michael, Wanderin Boy), and two were Grade III winners (Xchanger, Gotcha Gold). Let’s see what happens with these horses over the next twelve months, but it looks like a Grade II race to me.
I also want to keep an eye on the BC Juvenile Turf. Will this group be elite turf 3yos or fade into oblivion?

Comments