Saratoga opens tomorrow and I hope to play the entire 36 day meet. I'd like to bet the Pick 4 everyday and throw a few Pick 3s in as well with an occasional Win and Exacta wager. The 25% takeout hurts on the multiple race exotics and is unacceptable for trifectas. I plan to avoid turf sprints and state-bred races when possible but unfortunately I suspect that most every Pick 4 will close with a full field of restricted to state breds running for a ridiculously inflated purse ($61,000 for SN1X on opening day). I will eat chalk when necessary - favorites tend to do well at the Spa despite its moniker as the "graveyard of favorites".

So let's get rolling. I'll give myself a $2,000 bankroll and plan to bet what I have outlined on this website with the occasional tweaking based upon the prices I get. If it rains, I will post updated picks if I get the chance.

Race 3: $136
$40 Win  4 Deadly Dealer
$5 Exacta Box  3 Brilliant Son, 4 Deadly Dealer ($10)
$1 Pick 3  3,4/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10/3,7,11 ($54)
$1 Pick 3  4/1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10/3,7,11 ($24)
$1 Pick 3  4/1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10/11 ($8)
Deadly Dealer, favorite in the Woody Stephens (G2) and 2nd favorite in the Arkansas Derby (G2), drops back into N2X company. If he gets cooked on the lead look for a Brilliant Son, training at Saratoga since May, to close late.

Race 5: $30
$30 Win  11 Warn
All the attention/money will be on Frankel trained Borobudur, 3/4 brother of Aldebaran and 1/2 brother of Good Journey. Warn has the breeding and running style that fits the Saratoga turf. He should be a decent price.

Race 7: $60
$30 Win  12 Hangingbyathread
$1 Pick 4  12/1/6/ALL ($12)
$1 Pick 4  12/1,3,5/6/1,3,4,6,7,9 ($18)
Giant's Causeway colt Hangingbyathread returns to state bred company after running wide and near the lead in an 1 3/8 turf race against N1X open to all. Btw the final leg of the Pick 4 is a garbage SN1X that I can not make heads or tails of.

Race 9: $30
$30 Win  6 Yes By West
Yes By West is one of the few horses in here who has responded to a stiff challenge. Caught at the top of the stretch by the heavy favorite, she responded by keeping her neck in front all the way home. This is a big jump, but I like 12/1.

So I am betting $256 on opening - over 10% of my bankroll. This may be really stupid (as may be my reliance on Ronny Werner's Kentucky shippers).