07 Derby Thoughts
The Derby saved what was a horrible day of betting for me. Asi Siempre (2nd at 5/2), Consecration (11th at 2/1), Ah Day (2nd at even money), Appealing Zophie (6th at 9/5) and Einstein (7th at 5/2) were all short priced losers. Getting $11.80 on Street Sense made got me healthy again and luckily I did not try to get too fancy in exactas and trifectas because I had not liked the next three finishers.
As for the Derby, Street Sense got an easy trip rail skimming trip and equaled his 110 BC Juvenile figure. Borel's tendency to ride the rail may get him in trouble at some point during this Triple Crown run, but the field sizes in each of the next two races will be substantially smaller. I will resist the temptation to coronate Street Sense but he appears to be a few lengths better than anyone in this crop. That being said I will try to beat him in the Preakness. Hard Spun would seem like a logical choice but his trip (loose on the lead at a moderate pace) was as easy as Street Sense's. Curlin ran wide and was flying at the finish but still finished eight lengths behind the winner. I suspect he did not lose eight lengths worth of ground. Sedgefield ran evenly, finishing fifth while spending the entire race just off the lead and on the rail. Teuflesberg belongs in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard (and would probably not win that race, which I believe has been renamed after Barbaro - Sir Barton won the Triple Crown but Barbaro, well, he of course was The Greatest Horse of All Time). King of the Roxy, Xchanger, and Flying First Class assure that the Preakness will have a quick pace and will retreat at the top of the stretch. C P West’s most notable accomplishment is finishing second to King of the Roxy and couldn’t handle N1X allowance horses. Starbase has yet to run a speed figure of 90. Chelokee is not fast but has gotten hype because he is trained by Michael Matz, the trainer of Barbaro, The Greatest Horse of All Time.
So who am I going to bet? Looks like an unimpressive group. I suppose I will back Curlin because he is likely to be a decent price. I’m guessing he’ll be 6/1 while Street Sense is 3/5 and Hard Spun is 3/1.
Other thoughts:
DURING THE LIVE RACE GIVE US THE STANDARD TRACKVIEW!!!! It is ok to get fancy with your camera shots after the race is run but it ruined the Derby for me. I tried to keep my eye on Street Sense but the camera were all over the place and the horses were virtually indistinguishable in the overhead shot that lasted at least twenty seconds while the dots raced around the curve.
Betting was a pain in the ass as a result of the TVG-TrackNet Media feud. I normally bet almost exclusively through my Youbet account but was forced to use my Brisbet and Xpressbet accounts. Youbet has a far superior wagering platform and the Advantage Rewards program is the best in the business for a small time bettor like me. Brisbet only lists program numbers (instead of names) in their odds listings and wagering interface. Xpressbet is unstable and froze repeatedly. However all of this paled in comparison to the issues I had moving money to my accounts. Unwisely I had not started slowly moving money to my betting accounts weeks before the race to ensure that I had a large enough bankroll for myself and others who wanted some action. Unfortunately, I lost badly on Oaks day and was unable to put any more money into either account. The next morning, instead of preparing for the throng of friends and neighbors who would descend on my house for my inaugural Derby party, I was withdrawing money from ATMs across town (luckily I had upped my daily limits for my Breeders' Cup trip and had never lowered them back to the standard daily limit of $300) and punching out tickets at Southland Greyhound Park across the Mississippi River in West Memphis, AR. The only winning tickets I had all day were on Street Sense so I had to trek back there yesterday to cash out.
My wife and I threw a Derby party (30 adults and 20 kids) which kept my losses down as I surely would've put Street Sense on top of a numerous trifectas and superfectas but would have surely left out Hard Spun, Curlin, and Imawildandcrazyguy. I think mint juleps are nasty, but I spent the first hour making them nonstop. We bought two Hamilton Beach Icy Treat Makers which made excellent shaved ice and I would highly recommend it to those who like juleps and snow cones. Our Kentucky Burgoo was pretty much ignored as no one seemed to like the idea of hot soup on a hot muggy day. Each of the kids (aged 2-7) drew a number for a race contender and the winner got an Amazon.com $25 gift certificate. Let's get them gambling early so I can fleece them down the road.

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