RECAP: 05 BC Pick 6 (Bel)
This weekly series will review my BC Pick Six plays of the last four years. Hopefully I will learn from these past experiences and cash big this year.
October 29, 2005 Preview email
October 29, 2005 Preview email
Alright team, the gameplan is in order and if the horses follow it we should be rich. Once more unto the breach for a run at the elusive Pick Six. I am confident in our play and believe we are in for an exciting day tomorrow. Be sure to tune into the NBC broadcast (12-5pm central) for races live from Belmont Park in New York. Each year participation increases and this year we have 47 members and a $1600 bankroll (4100 for the Pick Six and $300 for each of the Pick Fours). This is four times the bankroll we had when we kicked this annual event off in 2002. I am honored that you are backing my opinions with your hard earned money. Let's have a little fun and make little money tomorrow.
Once again I've attached an excel spreadsheet detailing our bet. The first worksheet lists our tickets for the Early Pick 4 and the Pick Six. The Late Pick 4 wager will be made based upon where we stand in the Pick Six after two legs. I will email out the Late Pick Four wager at approximately 2:30pm.
Not only was it a mental challenge to decide which horses to bet on but it was perhaps more difficult to figure out the most efficient way to place our wager. We actually play 22 different tickets for the Pick Six. The next two worksheets detail our bets. The last worksheet has our distribution of combinations by race. Our bets hinges on a few "key" horses.
Who to root for:
Pick Six
Leg 1: F&M Turf
2 Film Maker is a live longshot and the key to our entire wager. If she comes in we have a great shot at hitting this thing. If you have a busy day and can't afford to spend the afternoon in front of the TV, check out this race. Film Maker finished a game second at long odds in this same race last year. She has a win this year but has spent most of the season running second and third. She is a hard horse to ride and trainer Graham Motion (whom I am betting on to have a big day) has used a number of different riders with her. She tends to be slow to respond to urging but once she gets her head in the race and starts running ... watch out. Patrick Valenzuela (P Val) is a strong aggressive jockey who is riding her again after a third place finish in the Flower Bowl. Look for him to start moving her mid-turn and for her to be flying at the end. 7 Wonder Again should also come flying late at a decent price.
Leg 2: Sprint
7 Lost in the Fog is 10 for 10 on the year but hasn't faced anyone and will be a massive underlay. Unfortunately this field blows, one of the weakest in years. We have spread around Lost in the Fog and we should root for 4 Battle Won and 6 Wildcat Heir with also some interest in late running 1 Taste of Paradise, 3 Silver Train, and 5 Lion Tamer.
Leg 3: Mile
11 Leriodesanimaux is easily the most talented horse in the field but trainer Bobby Frankel is a pathetic 3 of 60 in the BC and this one may be over the top. We like 11 along with 3 Whipper and 10 Valixir (Two euros) and defending champ 9 Singletary.
Leg 4: Distaff
Another race where we spread around the favorite. 3 Ashado should win.
Leg 5: Turf
Another critical leg. We have most of our wager on defending champ 4 Better Talk Now. He has improved this year capturing big races and proving himself as the top stayer in the US. The Euros seem to be over the top (and can't we always count on their bonehead jockeys to lose a race or two?). 7 Shakespeare, the probable favorite, is a fraud. This race will be strangely run with 1 Shake the Bank way out in front acting as a rabbit for Better Talk Now. Look for the big charcoal galloper to be flying down the stretch.
Leg 6: Classic
The scratching of Rock Hard Ten this evening conceded this race to 13 Saint Liam. 11 Borrego has a shot and while the rest of the field is weak, Saint Liam drew a tough post and should be challenged up front.
The Early Pick 4:
We spread in the first two legs (the 2yo races) to get to 2 Film Maker and 7 Wonder Again. If alive we'll hope to be 7 Lost in the Fog.
I must go to sleep. 2:23am.
October 30, 2005 Summary email
We had the money, we had the attitude, we had done our homework, we got beat.
Horse Racing is a very humbling game. You follow the races all year, you've watched replays, studied past performances, read every little tidbit of news and still there is so much that can happen between start and finish. Overall I'd call our performance mediocre (you're still out $20 so i guess a loss is a loss no moral victory if you're out $20), we had our chances but our key horses couldn't get the job done.
First off let's take a look at our Pick Six history
2002 $400, 18 with 3 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $40k) knocked out in leg 3
2003 $500, 18 with 2 of 6 (6 of 6 pays $2.7m) knocked out in leg 2
2004 $700, 2 with 4 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $60k) knocked out in leg 4
2005 $1000, 6 with 3 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $90k) knocked out in leg 3
Looking at the Pick Six
As for results
F&M Turf
1st Intercontinental ($32.20)
Our key horse Film Maker (9-1) checked early and then settled at the back of the pack behind a tepid pace set by the eventual winner. She rounded the turn moving quickly and was slowly gaining on the winner and nearly caught favorite Ouija Board for second. With a quicker pace and better trip she might have won. 7 Wonder Again who we also heavily backed got into to contention too late and finished fourth. We only had 14 combinations with Intercontinental so we were hurting.
It could have been worse.
Check out the $92k ticket for the played by an online betting syndicate
Filly and Mare Turf - 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,11,13
Sprint - 1,5,6,7
Mile - 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11
Distaff - 2,3,7,10,11,12
Turf - 2,3,5,6,7,9
Classic - 4,8,11,13
they were toast after one leg and knocked out of the consolation after leg two. bye bye. thanks for playing.
Sprint
1st Silver Train ($25.80)
Two races, two longshots. I had spread around heavy favorite Lost in the Fog but had more action on 4 Battle Won and 6 Wildcat Heir who were last and second to last. Lost in the Fog got cooked by a fast pace and was finished at the top of the stretch. The closers came flying and probably most of the almost $5mill in the Pick Six had taken a hit. We had one ticket left. No room for error.
Mile
1st Artie Schiller ($13.20)
Nothing is worse than get knocked out by a horse I had once loved but now detested. He was our key in the mile last year but didn't run a step. This year he was a money burner, always finding a way to lose. With a talented field around him including superstar (and a must win for our Pick Six) Leriodesanimaux, we only had him on 12 combinations (all of which were long since dead). More unfortunately we ignored him on our hurriedly constructed Pick Four. Leriodesanimaux was challenged for the lead and ran wide all the way around the track and just got beat by AS who had a perfect trip. We had secondary combinations with Euro, who as a group were off to bad start running up the track here and in the F&M Turf and Juvenile.
As for the Pick Six --- Done, done, done.
Our newly crafted Pick Four goes up in flames almost minutes after the bet is made (just 14 combinations alive).
Distaff
1st Pleasant Home ($63.50)
I was high on favorite Ashado, using her on over 50% of our Pick Six tickets (her loss knocks us out of the consolation 5 of 6), but my confidence in her began to tail off as I watched the races and see all the closers winning on the main track. The wind was blowing on what sounded like a cold and dreary day on Long Island (40s). Front runners like Ashado had a head wind down the backstretch and a tailwind running for home. This sets up for closers who cover up than fan out in the homestretch. I had sort of liked Pleasant Home, using her 42 combinations of the Pick Six and 47 combinations of the Pick Four, but she was inconsistent and had never shown up in a major race. She engulfed the field turning for home and widened to a ten length win.
The late Pick Four was going to pay --- and we were still alive. barely. We need Better Talk Now and either Saint Liam for Borrego in the Classic.
Turf
1st Shirocco ($19.60)
There was no horse I felt more confident in than Better Talk Now. He had a devastating stretch drive which won him two major stakes this fall and he relished the twelve furlong distance. The Euros in my mind were a bunch of frauds and second stringers. The hyped American Shakespeare was undefeated but had beaten no one a la Lost in the Fog. Unfortunately, the Euros came back to bite me. Better Talk Now settled well and then made a big move around the turn (catching the eye of announcer Tom Durkin) but stalled out and faded to 7th. The Euros ran 1-2-3-4 knocking us out of the late Pick Four.
Classic
1st Saint Liam ($6.80)
Billed as a match up between Saint Liam and Borrego (after the defection of Rock Hard Ten), I was confident that having both of these horses on our tickets covered this race, with a slight edge to Saint Liam. Of course we were just spectators at this point. Saint Liam raced from slightly off the pace and collared a game Flower Alley in deep stretch while Borrego didn't fire.
There were no tickets with 6 of 6 and 40 with 5 of 6 each paying $90,325. We had six combinations with 3 of 6.
The late Pick Four paid $8,651.50 and we had six combinations with 3 of 4. I believe if I had thought this wager out little bit better we would've cashed. One lesson I've learned is there is no point in playing chalk in the Pick Four. We had about $75 in combinations that would've paid off less than $1600. I'd rather swing for the fences as opposed to mail every a $7 check. With more respect for Artie Schiller and less respect for Better Talk Now we would've hit this. Shoulda coulda woulda.
oh yeah the early pick four.
well we spread in the two juvenile legs but didn't catch a price. We had no money on Intercontinental in the early Pick Four. We finished with two combinations with 3 of 4.
Overall, a mediocre performance. I think in a race day like this to have a fighting shot you have got to be aggressive. Had Film Maker won the F&M Turf we would've been in great shape but her loss pretty much killed us before the day really even got underway. Even so I do not regret being aggressive early. The tendency in pooled wagers is to try to stay alive as opposed to playing one's optimal wagering strategy. I prefer to make the best possible attempt at bringing down the pool and to do so involves beating favorites and keying a few choice runners. Our keys failed to win. what madeit more difficult to swallow was one of the keys was in the first leg of the wager.
maybe next year.
2006 is at historic Churchill Downs. I will be either on sabbatical or unemployed --- either way I'll be able to devote alot of time to picking winners.
October 30, 2005 Summary email
We had the money, we had the attitude, we had done our homework, we got beat.
Horse Racing is a very humbling game. You follow the races all year, you've watched replays, studied past performances, read every little tidbit of news and still there is so much that can happen between start and finish. Overall I'd call our performance mediocre (you're still out $20 so i guess a loss is a loss no moral victory if you're out $20), we had our chances but our key horses couldn't get the job done.
First off let's take a look at our Pick Six history
2002 $400, 18 with 3 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $40k) knocked out in leg 3
2003 $500, 18 with 2 of 6 (6 of 6 pays $2.7m) knocked out in leg 2
2004 $700, 2 with 4 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $60k) knocked out in leg 4
2005 $1000, 6 with 3 of 6 (5 of 6 pays $90k) knocked out in leg 3
Looking at the Pick Six
As for results
F&M Turf
1st Intercontinental ($32.20)
Our key horse Film Maker (9-1) checked early and then settled at the back of the pack behind a tepid pace set by the eventual winner. She rounded the turn moving quickly and was slowly gaining on the winner and nearly caught favorite Ouija Board for second. With a quicker pace and better trip she might have won. 7 Wonder Again who we also heavily backed got into to contention too late and finished fourth. We only had 14 combinations with Intercontinental so we were hurting.
It could have been worse.
Check out the $92k ticket for the played by an online betting syndicate
Filly and Mare Turf - 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,11,13
Sprint - 1,5,6,7
Mile - 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11
Distaff - 2,3,7,10,11,12
Turf - 2,3,5,6,7,9
Classic - 4,8,11,13
they were toast after one leg and knocked out of the consolation after leg two. bye bye. thanks for playing.
Sprint
1st Silver Train ($25.80)
Two races, two longshots. I had spread around heavy favorite Lost in the Fog but had more action on 4 Battle Won and 6 Wildcat Heir who were last and second to last. Lost in the Fog got cooked by a fast pace and was finished at the top of the stretch. The closers came flying and probably most of the almost $5mill in the Pick Six had taken a hit. We had one ticket left. No room for error.
Mile
1st Artie Schiller ($13.20)
Nothing is worse than get knocked out by a horse I had once loved but now detested. He was our key in the mile last year but didn't run a step. This year he was a money burner, always finding a way to lose. With a talented field around him including superstar (and a must win for our Pick Six) Leriodesanimaux, we only had him on 12 combinations (all of which were long since dead). More unfortunately we ignored him on our hurriedly constructed Pick Four. Leriodesanimaux was challenged for the lead and ran wide all the way around the track and just got beat by AS who had a perfect trip. We had secondary combinations with Euro, who as a group were off to bad start running up the track here and in the F&M Turf and Juvenile.
As for the Pick Six --- Done, done, done.
Our newly crafted Pick Four goes up in flames almost minutes after the bet is made (just 14 combinations alive).
Distaff
1st Pleasant Home ($63.50)
I was high on favorite Ashado, using her on over 50% of our Pick Six tickets (her loss knocks us out of the consolation 5 of 6), but my confidence in her began to tail off as I watched the races and see all the closers winning on the main track. The wind was blowing on what sounded like a cold and dreary day on Long Island (40s). Front runners like Ashado had a head wind down the backstretch and a tailwind running for home. This sets up for closers who cover up than fan out in the homestretch. I had sort of liked Pleasant Home, using her 42 combinations of the Pick Six and 47 combinations of the Pick Four, but she was inconsistent and had never shown up in a major race. She engulfed the field turning for home and widened to a ten length win.
The late Pick Four was going to pay --- and we were still alive. barely. We need Better Talk Now and either Saint Liam for Borrego in the Classic.
Turf
1st Shirocco ($19.60)
There was no horse I felt more confident in than Better Talk Now. He had a devastating stretch drive which won him two major stakes this fall and he relished the twelve furlong distance. The Euros in my mind were a bunch of frauds and second stringers. The hyped American Shakespeare was undefeated but had beaten no one a la Lost in the Fog. Unfortunately, the Euros came back to bite me. Better Talk Now settled well and then made a big move around the turn (catching the eye of announcer Tom Durkin) but stalled out and faded to 7th. The Euros ran 1-2-3-4 knocking us out of the late Pick Four.
Classic
1st Saint Liam ($6.80)
Billed as a match up between Saint Liam and Borrego (after the defection of Rock Hard Ten), I was confident that having both of these horses on our tickets covered this race, with a slight edge to Saint Liam. Of course we were just spectators at this point. Saint Liam raced from slightly off the pace and collared a game Flower Alley in deep stretch while Borrego didn't fire.
There were no tickets with 6 of 6 and 40 with 5 of 6 each paying $90,325. We had six combinations with 3 of 6.
The late Pick Four paid $8,651.50 and we had six combinations with 3 of 4. I believe if I had thought this wager out little bit better we would've cashed. One lesson I've learned is there is no point in playing chalk in the Pick Four. We had about $75 in combinations that would've paid off less than $1600. I'd rather swing for the fences as opposed to mail every a $7 check. With more respect for Artie Schiller and less respect for Better Talk Now we would've hit this. Shoulda coulda woulda.
oh yeah the early pick four.
well we spread in the two juvenile legs but didn't catch a price. We had no money on Intercontinental in the early Pick Four. We finished with two combinations with 3 of 4.
Overall, a mediocre performance. I think in a race day like this to have a fighting shot you have got to be aggressive. Had Film Maker won the F&M Turf we would've been in great shape but her loss pretty much killed us before the day really even got underway. Even so I do not regret being aggressive early. The tendency in pooled wagers is to try to stay alive as opposed to playing one's optimal wagering strategy. I prefer to make the best possible attempt at bringing down the pool and to do so involves beating favorites and keying a few choice runners. Our keys failed to win. what madeit more difficult to swallow was one of the keys was in the first leg of the wager.
maybe next year.
2006 is at historic Churchill Downs. I will be either on sabbatical or unemployed --- either way I'll be able to devote alot of time to picking winners.
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