This weekly series will review my BC Pick Six plays of the last four years. Hopefully I will learn from these past experiences and cash big this year.


October 30, 2004 Preview Email
The big day has finally arrived! Racing is at Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, TX (just outside of Dallas) and TV coverage will be from 12-5pm central NBC broadcast. Thanks for being a part of what will hopefully be financially rewarding as well as exciting (if you get to watch the races). A record 37 participants make up our wagering team and we have a bankroll of $1150. Each $20 share is worth approximately 1.74% of betting revenue.

Unlike the past two years this is a very playable card -- many races can be narrowed down to a few standouts. Who can handle the ship into the Texas heat and run well in front of big crowds and under increased scrutiny are the key handicapping angles.

Once again I've attached an excel spreadsheet detailing our bet. The first worksheet lists our tickets for the three wagers. Not only was it a mental challenge to decide which horses to bet on but it was perhaps more difficult to figure out the most efficient way to place our wager. We actually play 39 different tickets for the three wagers. The next three worksheets detail of our bets. The last worksheet has our distribution of combinations by race. Our bets hinges on a few "key" horses.

What needs to happen for us to have a big day?

Hitting the Pick 6:

Mile: Root hard for 6 Artie Schiller (12/1), a 3yo stepping up in class who has a swift turn of foot should benefit from the cut back in distance. This race is usually a messy cavalry charge of 14 horses racing around a tiny turf course. Horses who are flying at the finish typically win these races. We also spread a bit in this race so wins by 1 Whipper, 10 Singletary, 11 Six Perfections, 12 Nothing to Lose would be good if AS doesn't fire. We make a bold stand against 9/2 second choice Special Ring.

Sprint: Champali (12/1) has run big under the radar, staying in FL and KY. He should stalk the fast pace and then pounce at the top of the stretch. 13 Midas Eyes and 2 Speightstown are among the favorites in this race on our tickets as is front runner 9 Gold Storm.

F&M Turf: 5 Ouija Board (8/5) is being hailed as superstar after wins in the English and Irish Oaks and a fast closing third place in the Arc in France (the most presitigious race in Europe). She will lay off the pace and then come flying in the stretch to win this race. We practically single her.

Juvenile:

Eight horse field , five of which are real quality. Hard to narrow this won down but we do have a majority of our tickets with 2 Roman Ruler, the fastest horse coming in even though his last race was unimpressive.

Turf: A match race between 1 Powerscourt and 4 Kitten's Joy and we split our ticket here.

Classic: 12 Pleasantly Perfect should repeat as he is the best horse in the world over this distance of ground. He has been lightly campaigned this year but his trainer Richard Mandella is one of the best. Ghostzapper has run some of the fastest speed ratings ever but I'm skeptical. We toss Funny Cide (let's hope the horse that made us money in the 03 Derby doesn't bite us in the ass).

The Pick 4s

The Early Pick Four was tricky and we took 1 Ashado, 4 Society Selection, and 10 Island Fashion in the Distaff. The Juvenile Fillies is wide open and we need to hope that 1 Balletto can get the distance. The Mile and the Sprint hinge on 6 Artie Schiller (Mile) and 3 Champali (Sprint).

We should make a real run at the Late Pick Four. In the first leg we have alot of tickets with the likely short priced winner Ouija Board. However I'm intrigued by 3 Film Maker, a filly who has had bad trips in her last two races but each time closed with a fury. We spread in the Juvenile, took both logical horses in the Turf, and finish with defending champ Pleasantly Perfect. These last races might be chalky.

now i gotta get some sleep. i've been moving into a new house the past three days (i'm anticipating making the house payments with my share of the winnings)  and staring at this computer screen for the last eight hours. Here's to tomorrow being a big day.

Wilko???? and then Better Talk Now? Arrrggh!

So close yet so far in our grand pursuit of the most elusive of all wagers -- the Breeders' Cup Pick Six. This is the second time in three years that no one came away hitting all six winners so therefore five of six paid $56,149.60. Our best ticket had four of six. Overall we had 2 combinations with 4 and 22 combinations with 3. Unfortunately close doesn't count. We were also very close in the early Pick 4 alive to Champali after three legs but he had a rough trip and rallied late to finish seventh. We had three combinations with three winners -- give us Balleto, Artie Schiller, or Champali and we make out ok.

So let's look back at what might have been.

The days started off excellently with Ashado ($6) getting a perfect rail stalking trip to win the Distaff and keep us alive with 93 combinations left in the early Pick 4. In the Juvenile Fillies we had the most combinations with 4-1 shot Balletto and she looked good sitting right behind the front runners and took the lead in the stretch only to be engulfed in the wake of Sweet Catomine's powerful surge. Sweet Catomine ($6.60) was clearly the classier filly as she ran wide and had a tough trip but won impressively. We had eight combinations left but with a chalk heavy first two legs the payout was looking slim ... if we could get there. We were alive on one ticket with Artie Schiller in the Mile and Speightstown, Champali, Midas Eyes, and Gold Storm in the Sprint. We also had another ticket which spread the Mile with longshot Singletary, Whipper, defending champ Six Perfections, and Nothing to Lose. If one of those four won we were alive to Champali. Singletary ($35) got the perfect stalking trip and held off an erratically running 30-1 Antonius Pius. Artie Schiller never picked up his feet and finished up the track.

Singletary was good news for the Pick Six because his long odds knocked out alot of players early but we were still alive with 52 combinations. As for the Pick Four, we were desperate for 7-1 Champali in the Sprint. Speightstown ($9) broke well and laid just off a brutal speed dual. He squeezed through at rail at the top of the stretch to win by a length with the late runners closing in on him. We lost the early Pick Four which paid $1600. Damn. However we were still looking ok in the Pick Six with ten combinations and four legs left.

In the Filly & Mare Turf we had Ouija Board on most of our tickets and she looked like the surest of sure things on the whole card. However we spread a little on the early Pick Four hoping to catch a bomb in Film Maker, owned by Don Adam, the gracious host for my first visit to Saratoga. She had lost her last two starts but had run deceptively well and I had been excited about betting her in this race for a month. I was hoping Mr. Adam would enter her and would've bet her enthusiastically if Ouija Board had skipped the Cup. Film Maker (16-1) rated in second and held a brief lead at the top of the stretch but Ouija Board ($3.80) was too good. The exacta paid a juicy $43. Of course for our purposes we still had ten combinations with three races remaining.

At this point I was convinced we were going to hit the Pick Six. We had four horses covered in the Juvenile, and the only other horse in the race I thought that had any chance was on our late Pick Four. The other three, two Euros and a maiden winner, were easy tosses. We then had the two overwhelming favorites in the Turf, Kitten's Joy and Powerscourt. Finally we had the two best horses in the Classic, defending champion Pleasantly Perfect and freak Ghostzapper. I was most nervous about the Classic but excited about being potentially alive for the last leg.

The Juvenile unfolded well with the longshots contending for the lead. Around the turn Roman Ruler and Sun King moved on the inside and Afleet Alex rallied outside fading Consolidator, the only horse I believed was a threat that we didn't cover. All the longshots had faded except Wilko but he had run wide all race and was past by Afleet Alex and Sun King. Incredibly, Wilko got going again and surged to the lead while the others were running out of gas. He paid $58.60 and just like that it was all over. not only had he won but he clearly ran the best race of the group and could be a horse to reckon with in next year's classic. A team member who was at the BC Cup had bet Wilko and in high spirits. I just wished he'd clued me into this horse before. uggh. Game Over. Pick Four out the window. A chance at the 5 of 6 consolation payoff but it wouldn't cover the cost of our wager.

Better Talk Now ($57.80) rubbed salt in the wounds. He sat in the back of the field through most of the long race before rallying to win going away. He ran all over the place in the stretch, cutting off Magistretti and bumping Kitten's Joy but the stewards did not take him down. Powerscourt ran third (caught by Kitten's Joy at the wire) and lost due to a horrendous ride by Euro jockey Jamie Spencer who moved about a quarter of a mile early. The damn Euros screwed me over twice with Wilko and then Spencer's ride. I am fairly certain that with a more patient ride Powerscourt could've won this race.

The Classic was somewhat anticlimactic. Ghostzapper won wire to wire setting soft fractions all the way around the track. Personally I was ahead on the day (thanks to the Ouija Board-Film Maker exacta, Singletary's win, and Singletary-Speightstown-Ouija Board Pick Three) but I played against Ghostzapper and his mysterious trainer Bobby Frankel. Frankel's horses run huge all year but never show up on Breeders' Cup day when they are under the microscope (testing lab, ahem). 2 for 59 with many losing favorites in past BC, Frankel was living up to form with Midas Eyes (Sprint) and Nothing to Lose (Mile) both running up the track. Therefore I tossed Ghostzapper and ended up having a losing day. To the team member who went to the BC I had emailed this advice for the Classic.

This trifecta paid $82 but neither of us played it.

While it was another BC day that did not pay off my new house or put a Bentley and Hummer in the garage, we made a good run at it ... much improved from the last two years.

i got a few emails from those of you that followed along on tv (mostly cursing Wilko) and i hope that everyone enjoyed participating in the betting syndicate.

even with losing it was still an enjoyable day of horse racing as any day of racing is. If you have not been out to your local track I encourage you to do so.

if you've gotten to this point in the email it must be a slow day at work or home

thanks once again for participating. one bad year won't chase me away. i'll be back in '05 ready to take another plunge and i hope you will join me. it is a great honor you have bestowed upon me to trust me with investing your hard earned cash and i feel with certainty that we will beat this thing in the future. We'll get'em next year at Belmont Park.