RECAP: 02 BC Pick 6 (AP)
This weekly series will review my BC Pick Six plays of the last four years. Hopefully I will learn from these past experiences and cash big this year.
October 26, 2002
5 Banks Hill 38%
October 27, 2002
Well it was an exciting day of racing at Arlington yesterday with a few huge upsets and some logical favorites winning. Our Pick 6 performance was respectable. We had eighteen combinations with three winners but in all fairness these were the three obvious choices. I've once again included the excel spreadsheet with odds and parlay payoffs included. What is interesting was that the Pick 6 paid less than a $2 parlay would have paid (a parlay is where you bet your winnings from the previous race on the next race). The Pick 6 paid $428,392 (only six winning tickets)* and 5 of 6 paid $4,606.20 (183 tickets). The Pick 6 pool was $4.6 million. A $2 parlay on the six winners would have paid $1,223,398. I'm shocked there were actually six winners with three bombs coming in. Our Pick 6 was a little conservative - only 13 of our 200 tickets had a projected winnings of >$100k. I lacked enough conviction or fortitude to toss vulnerable favorites. The reality is we should have had no tickets with Whywhywhy, Golden Apples, Came Home, or War Emblem, but I was too cautious. However, even if we had $10k to bet I would not have had Domedriver, Starine, and Volponi on the same ticket --- and I would have been unlikely to have Volponi on any tickets. I have summarized each race along with my Pick 6 thinking and my own bets.
October 26, 2002
The big day is finally here!
First off let me thank everyone for participating in the synidicate. Never did I imagine when I sent out my first solicitation email that there would be such a strong response. I sold a total of 13.5 shares or 67.5% of the wager to 13 different people.
I never thought handicapping would be such a challenge but I've spent hours pouring over this racecard. I had to reevaluate every horse Friday night based on course conditions (quite possibly a soft turf course and a muddy dirt course). I had planned on writing synopsis of each race but I did not have the time nor did I think any of you would read it. However I do plan to write summary on Sunday, mainly for myself as a way to come down from the races/wager. I have been unable to sleep and numbers spin around in my head when I do. I have come to the realization that handicapping at the level I'd like to involves an incredible amount of time and concentration.
Now to the details. First off the races are televised on NBC with the Broadcast beginning at 12pm central. The Pick Six makes up the final six (of eight) Breeders' Cup races.
Mile 1:35
Sprint 2:10
F&M Turf 2:45
Juvenile 3:20
Turf 3:55
Classic 4:35
I have attached an excel file that has all the details of our $400 wager. The first sheet (entitled Grades) lists my grading of the horses. Horses that were given As (4 total) are my top choices. Horses with Bs (32) are contenders that have some flaws; Cs (32) are horses that I think are longshots to win (though some of them may be at short prices); Ds (4) are horses that have no chance. In a few races I am able to isolate a clear winner in my mind, other races (mainly the Sprint and the Juvenile) seem wide open. I have a + or - that I added in the second go around to try to further differentiate the horses. A star in front of the horses indicates that they would benefit from an off-track (rain). Friday races at Arlington were in the slop and Saturday will probably see similar but slightly better conditions.
Our wager is listed on the second sheet (entitled Wager). These are how the tickets will look when I place the bet. We will have 25 different tickets accounting for 200 different combinations (at $2 a combination). The third sheet (entitled Tickets) list our 200 different combinations. I plan to cross out losing combinations after each race and see what we have left going into the next race. There are a few horses that our bet hinges on ("key horses").
Mile 10 Rock of Gibraltor 83% of all combinations
Sprint 10 Orientate 56%
FM T 2 Islington 38%
Juv 14 Toccet 62%
Turf 5 High Chaparral 88%
Clas 7 Medaglia d'Oro 69%
So hopefully we can get of of the Mile unscathed. While I do have seven of the other horses on our tickets, we don't stand much of a chance if the Rock doesn't win. He will be a heavy favorite and has won his last seven races in a row all group 1 in Europe. We have the Sprint fairly well covered - 10 of 13 horses should the Rock win the Mile, we'd prefer Orientate win but we'd settle for Kona Gold. I made some changes in Filly and Mare Turf due to the weather but we are still heavily dependent on Islington (top Euro) and Banks Hill (last year's winner). The Juvenile is wide open and I went heavily with Champagne Stakes winner Toccet. He's a longshot but you have to make a stand somewhere (this is like filling out your NCAA brackets, you know there are going to be some upsets but you've got to figure out where they are). I will be heavily backing Toccet to win and in my trifectas and Pick 3s (if that makes you feel any better). High Chaparral should be the heavy favorite (with good reason) in the Turf. In the Classic I went with Medaglia d'Oro (best of a mediocre lot) with some action on the improving Evening Attire. The fourth sheet (entitled "Distribution") gives the number of combinations in which each horse in covered.
All of this will change if there are any scratches or (dramatic) weather changes on Saturday morning. Obviously I'll keep everyone informed
October 27, 2002
Well it was an exciting day of racing at Arlington yesterday with a few huge upsets and some logical favorites winning. Our Pick 6 performance was respectable. We had eighteen combinations with three winners but in all fairness these were the three obvious choices. I've once again included the excel spreadsheet with odds and parlay payoffs included. What is interesting was that the Pick 6 paid less than a $2 parlay would have paid (a parlay is where you bet your winnings from the previous race on the next race). The Pick 6 paid $428,392 (only six winning tickets)* and 5 of 6 paid $4,606.20 (183 tickets). The Pick 6 pool was $4.6 million. A $2 parlay on the six winners would have paid $1,223,398. I'm shocked there were actually six winners with three bombs coming in. Our Pick 6 was a little conservative - only 13 of our 200 tickets had a projected winnings of >$100k. I lacked enough conviction or fortitude to toss vulnerable favorites. The reality is we should have had no tickets with Whywhywhy, Golden Apples, Came Home, or War Emblem, but I was too cautious. However, even if we had $10k to bet I would not have had Domedriver, Starine, and Volponi on the same ticket --- and I would have been unlikely to have Volponi on any tickets. I have summarized each race along with my Pick 6 thinking and my own bets.
Mile
winner Domedriver (26-1)
favorite Rock of Gibraltar (4-5) 2nd
I was about even on my betting going into the mile. I had cashed a ticket on Azeri in the Distaff because somehow she went off at 9-5. The media had talked so much about how she was going to be overbet that her odds became quite generous. I had singled Storm Flag Flying in the first some Pick 3s and she made a magnificent effort to come back after being headed in the stretch (something that you almost never see), so these tickets were alive. Most of our Pick 6 tickets had Rock in the first leg. He is a superstar who had won seven consecutive group 1 races in Europe at a Mile. He drew a wide post position with a short run into the first turn and there were some reports that he was over the top but he was still worthy of a single. Even in defeat he was worthy of a single ---- since he was only beaten because his jockey gave him a terrible ride and he fell victim to some bad racing luck. One thing that came out of the BC was how bad the European jockeys were. They routinely ran their horses into trouble and waited way too long for their finishing kick despite the short American stretch drives. Rock broke slowly and raced wide around the turn and the down the backstretch despite the fact that on an off turf course to good footing is to the rail. Rock begin his dramatic acceleration at the top of the homestretch only to be checked because Landseer brokedown in front of him. Once he found racing room with a furlong left Domedriver, who had an easy trip up the rail wasn't going to be caught. Our Pick 6 was looking bad but I was looking damn good because I had Domedriver, Good Journey, and Forbidden Apple boxed in an exacta and they were one-two-three. However, despite the fact that he had screwed us out of most of our Pick 6, Rock got rolling and made an amazing kick to catch Good Journey by a nose just under the wire, costing me a $200+ exacta. The good news was that we were not dead yet. I reevaluated races at 3am Saturday morning based on the weather and put Domedriver on some tickets. In fact my bad weather horses finished 1,3,4,5,6,7 (oh and 9 and broke down). We would need everything to work out to win now. We had four singles (with the longshot Toccet in the Juvenile) and five horses covered in the F&M Turf.
Sprint
winner and favorite Orientate (5-2)
When handicapping the Pick 6 I assumed the Sprint and the Juvenile would have the most random outcome. In fact, two logical horses won those two races ,while three bombs came in the races I thought were the most logical. I should've singled Orientate. He had the best figures and was coming in fresh. However I was worried he'd get cooked in a front end speed dual. At least that is what the talking heads were saying. However Orientate has won stalking and has won covering a distance of ground so I was confident but I still made a number of tickets with aged closer Kona Gold, super filly Xtra Heat and seven others. I bet $44 worth of Pick 3s in the Sprint, most of which keyed Orientate and Toccet in the Juvenile. I did have a Pick 3 left from the Juvenile Fillies with Storm Flag Flying, Domedriver, and Orientate. A threw in another win ticket for Orientate and went downstairs to root like hell for him. Thunderello, a longshot I liked (he was 50-1 and yet I rated him as a B and put him on some of our tickets -- though in all fairness I liked everyone in this race) broke from the rail to the lead and looked determined to wire the field but Orientate caught fifty yards from the wire. We were still alive for our Pick 6. Plus I had a Pick 3 ticket that paid $250.40!!! Yeehaw. We're rolling now.
F&M Turf
winner Starine (13-1)
favorite Golden Apples (3-1)
I relied heavily on Islington, the top European filly, and Banks Hill, last year's winner who was now in the barn of Bobby Frankel (top American trainer). Both were ideally suited for a firm turf course and the Arlington course was off. In my early morning handicap I had added Kazzia, Turtle Bow, and Gossamer to our bad weather ticket (the one that was still alive). I left out Starine because despite her good background on off courses, she hadn't won in a year and figured to race off the rail, a no-no on the AP turf. This was dumb mistake in hindsight and as I watched the race unfold I my worries were confirmed. She raced away from Banks Hill and Islington (who got a horrible ride from a Euro jockey; she was steadied repeatedly down the backstretch and raced wide in the final turn). Damn! so long to the Pick 6. Perhaps we could hit the three singles and get a consolation payoff. Two of my C rated horses had won -- I saw my reputation eroding and I felt like hours of study were going to waste. My Pick 3s were dead. I had made an additional $67 worth of Pick 3s and Pick4s that were now dead.
Juvenile
winner Vindication (4-1)
favorite Whywhywhy 5-2
I went with the Champagne winner Toccet (8-1) in this race despite starting from the outside with a short run up to the first turn. I handicapped this race like I did the Derby (where, might I add, I turned a nice profit). None of these horses had gone the 9f distance and I looked at pedigree and conditioning. I wanted a horse whose pedigree was distance bent and a horse who had run a good number of races, including races around two turns, and had done distance works. The problem was I didn't find a horse I really liked. I kept wondering what to do about the three Euros (considering they were unknowns who had raced on grass). I had decided earlier in the week to toss them all but I reluctantly played two of them on our Pick 6 because I wasn't to thrilled with the Americans. Toccet looked like the best on paper. He was improving having won twice around two turns before winning in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont. He was by Awesome Again out of a Cozzene mare so he should be able to run all day. However he raced wide around the turns and was never in contention. Vindication won after getting the lead and he was our second play. Vindication may be a Derby horse after all is said and done. He was impressive winning the Kentucky Juvenile in September after a horrendous start and looked good on the lead here. Kafwain, a horse I had tossed but then added back in because of the weather, got up for second and Hold That Tiger, a Euro, finished third no thanks to another bad ride as well as a slow break. The favorite Whywhywhy finished ninth. He had a sprinters pedigree and had never raced around two turns. I didn't have the guts to completely toss him. I had some Pick 3s with Vindication winning the first leg so beating wise it was not a complete disaster but I did lose $53 on exotics keying Toccet.
Turf
winner and favorite High Chaparral (even)
A no-brainer. High Chaparral was quite possibly the best horse in Europe and there was a small field so even his Euro jockey couldn't cost him the race. I played only fifteen dollars on this race most of which were Doubles with Medaglia d'Oro and Evening Attire in the Classic. I did place token bets on some of the others. High Chaparral ran near the back the whole race and then circled the field to win in east fashion. Denon, the best American (8% of our now dead Pick 6), ran off the board. I had a few Pick Threes with Vindication and High Chaparral and I needed Medaglia d'Oro or Evening Attire to win the Classic --- they wouldn't payoff as sweet as my earlier Pick 3, but a positive return would be nice.
Classic
winner Volponi (43-1)
favorite Medaglia d'Oro (5-2)
Here was a race where I thought I would be able to crush. I looked for a horse who could get the distance of ground (10f) and had the proper conditioning. However each horse in the race and some sort of knock against them. Came Home had a stellar record but seemed like he wouldn't be able to handle the distance on the deeper Arlington surface (he had won the Pacific Classic at 10f at Del Mar but that was on the always speed favoring and hard west coast tracks). War Emblem was only able to win on the lead and yet he had broken poorly his last few times out and E Dubai breaking from the rail figured to beat him out. Adding to my dislike of this pair was that they had not raced since August. I loved Medaglia d'Oro. He ran a great race in the 12f Belmont Stakes and the 10f Travers so the distance wouldn't be an issue. He had tactical speed - he could run on the lead or slightly off the pace. However he also had a long layoff so I was worried about his conditioning. Evening Attire had matured into a talented 4yo and had just won in impressive flying from the clouds fashion in the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- a new top which made me worried about a bounce (or an off race after a big effort). I liked Macho Uno and Dollar Bill among the others if the pace was suicidal. I played a trifecta and a superfecta with Medaglia d'Oro and Evening Attire on top and the closers on the bottom. Hesitatingly I played both Medaglia d'Oro and Evening Attire underneath every other horse as a saver. Medaglia looked good as he stalked E Dubai and then War Emblem but as he got to the front on the turn Volponi shot through the rail and drew off opening a big lead. Just as I was trying to figure out what had happened I realized that if Medaglia held on for second I'd be in for a big payday because of my backwheel. It looked as though the plodder Milwaukee Brew would catch him but he mustered enough strength to hold on by a neck. I exacta paid $231.80. A nice close to a day that had started out promising and then fell apart.
I personally bet a total of $332 (in addition to the $130 in our ill-fated Pick 6) and grossed $528.70. A profit of nearly $200 on the day.
As for the Pick 6 - it was a learning experience and I believe we'll give it a good run next year. I hope you choose to join me October 2003 for the next assault on the ultra Pick 6. Perhaps if we win we can rent out luxury boxes when the Breeders' Cup comes to Lone Star Park in '04.
*In reality the six winning tickets were punched by insiders after the fourth leg was run. Five of Six paid about $40k
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