With Keeneland on the brink of opening, most bettors will face their first major test of picking winners on the polytrack. As a traditionalist I don't like the stuff. Horse should run on dirt and grass. If the horses of the past could run on the dirt every week for a prolonged period of time, then so should those of the 21st century. If they can't take it then they shouldn't be bred. Period. It appalls me to think that Breeders' Cup races will eventually be run on the stuff. Unfortunately (or fortunately for most) no one listens to me so we had better start figuring out how to handicap races run on the stuff.

Luckily, there have been three meets at Turfway and a few weeks of racing at Woodbine to establish the tendencies of the all weather surfaces. From what I have heard, the surface is fair to closers and favors horses with some turf form and breeding.

As for what a fair surface means for bettors, Andrew Beyer believes

… if the Polytrack advocates prevail, and all racetracks are basically the same, the game will lose many of its subtleties. It might suffer the same fate as harness racing -- becoming too understandable and predictable, producing too many small payoffs, driving gamblers to other activities that offer more challenge and better opportunities for profit. Though the practicality and safety of synthetic surfaces may make them irresistible, a sport filled with Polytrack sounds boringly homogenized.

I, on the other hand, am hopelessly lost betting races on the stuff and find Turfway races inscrutable.

What do the results indicate so far? The following table contains summary statistics from races this fall (through today's races) at Turfway and my sample of races at 36 tracks in the fall of 2002.

Favorites win at about the same rate at Turfway as they do anywhere else, but their rate of return is much better at Turfway (-9% vs -16.4%). The average and median payouts on win, exacta, and trifecta bets are slightly higher at Turfway, perhaps due to the somewhat larger field size. I guess you can conclude from this table that the public is somewhat more confused by races at Turfway, but I am actually surprised they do as well as they do. Perhaps Beyer's gloomy visions will yet come true.

No matter what, now is the time to get to work. There are factors, angles, and nuisances yet to be uncovered that could make Keeneland and Hollywood very profitable. Now is the time to compile data and analyze pace, speed, and pedigree. Any edge you uncover will last only a little while - so get studying.

… and you might ask what will I be doing?

Betting Oak Tree and Belmont.