Just back from a horseplayer's fantasy - two days of live racing at Belmont, watching races from the exclusive Belmont Room in the second floor clubhouse and in box seats directly in front of the dining area, lunch with Steve Crist and Mike Watchmaker, breakfast and a tour of the backside, and two nights at the first class Garden City Hotel. Travel and lunch were courtesy of the Daily Racing Form. To explain: my #1 gambling buddy and fellow economist Randy won the trip in a drawing he was entered in through his purchase of "Bet with the Best II: Longshots." His wife stepped aside, realizing that the trip would be more enjoyed by his gambling cronies, and I was lucky enough that Randy invited me along. I wish I could have helped us to more winners at the track and earned my keep. Randy was a 673 to 1 shot to win the drawing, so we were well ahead before we ever stepped foot in New York.
Randy had his choice of Hollywood Park or Belmont Park and it was a no-brainer for him. He detests the artificial surfaces as much as I do and is willing to give up horseplaying should all tracks go synthetic. Right now with NYRA, Churchill Downs, the Fair Grounds, and Gulfstream he has enough action to keep him happy. Keeneland was a blood bath and we've vowed off the stuff ever since. The choice of Belmont was cinched by Steve Crist, whose work we both admire. The Daily Racing Form's prize just included Saturday at the races, but we worked it out such that we arrived early and so independently took in Friday's card. We were hosted by Francis, one of Randy's former students. Francis is a mover and shaker. He was a professional golfer and is currently a golf coach, but he has also dabbled in training and currently owns horses based at Philadelphia Park.
Thanks to Francis we were able to secure a table in the Belmont Room and were right at the finish line. We could watch the races inside but generally chose to go outside to sit in NYRA box seats to soak it all in. House handicapper Andy Serling was a few boxes away and carried on an animated dialogue with horseplayers and fans that would come by and chat with him. My guess is that it was a tough few days for Mr. Serling because it was an absolute chalkfest. In the 19 races only one winner paid in excess of $12.
The card was tough for me and my handicapping buddy. Randy specializes in claimers on the dirt. The card was full of turf races. I like turf and dirt routes and dislike claimers and statebreds. NY racing these days seems all about turf sprints and statebreds. I had allocated decent bankroll for the trip but treaded lightly both days. I was beaten up badly on Belmont Stakes day and still have a trip to Vegas before the month ends so I couldn't empty my wallet. I bet $274 on Friday and finished down $49.70. I hit the exacta on race 3rd, 7th, and 8th, and had the late double and Senior Rita Lady in the 8th. Randy and I split a $92 play on the late Pick 4 which was eliminated in the first leg. Saturday I ran $414.40 through the machines and finished down $45.40. Randy and I played an early Pick 4 alive to half the field including Mike Watchmaker's upset special Cherokee Speed (which would've paid $900). He gave us good run for our money but came up just short. Despite covering half the field (including another longshot - T. Boone) we left off winner Big Al. I recouped by catching the exacta ($206). If I ever run into Mr. Watchmaker again I'll buy him a drink. Our late Pick 4 went down in flames when Mucho Macho failed to match his big debut Beyer of 106 and finished second to Goldsville in the 8th. I had played against Sammarco in the 2nd, not trusting the figure from the May 17th race where Mucho Macho edged Sammarco. But when Sammarco had an easy time with the maiden field that Mr. Crist said was stronger than Mucho Macho's competition, we singled him. My only other ticket cashed on the day was Lady Digby ($10.20) in the All Along (now if she had only won last time on Preakness Day …). Watchmaker and Crist tipped us to Sailor's Cap ($9.20) in the Virginia Derby but I stubbornly stuck with Adriano and Randy didn't get his bet down on Sailor's Cap in time. James Toner was in the Belmont Room and said that he knew once it started pouring that Sailor's Cap was a lock. Asked if he had a bet down, he replied that he didn't bet. I guess the trainer's share of $360,000 was satisfactory.
Two days of betting: $688.40 through the machines for a loss of $95.10. Would've been nice to come away a winner, but I can't complain.
As for lunch with the celebrities, Mike Watchmaker and Steve Crist could not have been nicer. It was clear when they showed up that they had not been given much of an idea what was happening or why they were supposed to be there, but they spent the afternoon answering our questions, listening to us vent about the game, and throwing us some good plays. Steve tried to talk me off Better Than Swiss in the 3rd which I unwisely ignored. I am not sure why I did not take more of Crist's and Watchmaker's advice on the card. I guess everyone thinks of themselves as an expert handicapper (just like everyone thinks they know everything about the economy). These guys are everyday players, I'm a weekend duffer with a double digit handicap. If I had listened more perhaps I'd have walked away a winner. It is crucial in this game to know when to stick with your convictions and when to change your play. This weekend I stuck to my guns a bit too much.
Saturday morning we went to the backside, stopping at Barn 52 to see Steve Asmussen trained multiple stakes winner J Be K. J Be K has a special place in my heart and Randy's since we cashed on him in the Bay Shore and Woody Stephens. We have followed him since he broke the track record at Saratoga in his maiden win. J Be K went to the track Saturday and we saw him washed down and cooled out. He has had recent work on his left front ankle but hopefully will get back to the track for the 3yo sprints at Saratoga.
Courtlandt Farm/Graham Motion My Saratoga angle - betting Courtlandt Farm/Graham Motion horses (Adriano, TD Vance, Loconia, Indescribable) - went up in smoke as Don Adam moved his horses from Motion to Bill Mott. This was very surprising given Motion's success with his horses.
He took all 12 of his horses away. It’s very disappointing, but I’m starting to recover. I’ll be sick for a while watching all the horses run in big stakes. We’ve won 19 stakes for him in the last few years, including the Arlington Matron (gr. III) with Indescribable on May 26. It’s a funny old game. It was rough on the stable; some of the crew were in tears. But, it’s happened to all of us. (Blood Horse)
Bill Mott is running two Courtlandt Farm horses at Colonial Downs, presumably in spots that Motion was pointing to. Indescribable will go in the All Along facing former stablemate Lady Digby. Adriano will run in the Colonial Turf Cup.
My only guess is that the trainer move surrounds the handling of Adriano's spring campaign which ended with a 19th place Derby finish.
Golden Man I just watched 6yo gelding Golden Man finish off the board in a 14k claimer at Belmont. About three years ago, Golden Man finished 3rd in the Long Branch at Monmouth for Lawrence Walters under Alan Garcia. He then showed up the following day at Delaware Park to finish second in the Leonard Richards for Anthony Dutrow under John Velazquez. Two jockeys, two trainers, one horse, one weekend.
Saturday with Crist and Watchmaker I'm headed to NYC tomorrow to spend two days at Belmont Park and the Daily Racing Form is springing for my trip. A buddy of mine won a drawing for a day at the races at Belmont (Bet with the Best II contest) and lunch with a DRF personality. I was lucky enough to get invited to tag along. We are going to the races on Friday and Saturday and will have lunch with Steve Crist and Mike Watchmaker on Saturday. I am a huge fan of Steve Crist. I subscribe to DRF Plus just so I can read his column (which I almost always completely agree with) and have read all of his books (Exotic Betting, Betting on Myself, The Horse Traders, Offtrack).
Jim Rome I turned on the radio on Friday and heard national syndicated sports talk radio host Jim Rome interviewing Mike Puype about the Friday night feature race at Hollywood Park, the 1st running of the King Glorious. Puype trains Rome's horse El Manuel, one of the favorites in that race. I used to be a big Rome fan and listed to "The Jungle" almost religiously in the 90s but now I only flip to it every so often. Rome used to say that Horse Racing was a bet not a sport and that jockeys were circus midgets. Now he owns horses as part of Little Red Feather Racing and is talking up the sport on his radio show. El Manuel ended up running second, probably costing the "Clones" a bunch of money.
With ADWs shut out from the Churchill signal thanks to an ongoing dispute between the track and the horsemen, the only way for me to bet tomorrow's big card is the cross the Mississippi river and bet at Southland Greyhound Park. I love the card and I look forward to watching the races on HRTV but I doubt I place any bets. I'm still hurting from my Belmont Stakes blood letting and the nuisance of placing bets will ensure that I go dark tomorrow.
So here are some pretend wagers.
Pick 6 Race 6: 5 Hysterical Lady is a solid single. Race 7: A wide open race. I'll use both favorites, 3 Zee Zee and 4 Pure Clan, with two longshots, 1 C J's Leelee and 6 Magical Theater. Race 8: 2 Pyro takes his first step to regaining control of the 3yo division (so maybe that is a stretch but he'll beat this field). Race 9: Spread with emphasis on 3 Wicked Style, 6 Old Man Buck, and 7 Bobby Blue Eyes. Race 10: Curlin looks like a he should win this on a walkover but he is a furlong short of his best distance and is giving up a ton weight. I'll use 2 Delightful Kiss and 9 Barcola on a few tickets. Race 11: 3 Dreaming of Anna is a cinch.
Update: A chalkfest. 5-4-2-4-1-3 Pick 6 that paid $48 for 6 of 6 and $2.80 for 5 of 6. The dollar Pick 4 paid $34.50. Good thing I didn't bet the card.
Live Video was unavailable last night for Mountaineer Park and handle took a major dip, falling by 2/3 from the previous Monday night despite similar cards. This is evidence that there are a good number of casual horseplayers who will pick up the form and play live racing when available. Regulars players of Mountaineer would have bet with or without a live signal - if I handicap a card I plan to bet it whether I can see the races or not. Casual Monday night players just switched to another track or took the night off from betting.
Here are the handle numbers. Note that live handle, as pathetic as it is, was up.
Big Brown failed to live up to the hype and the longest shot on the board, Da' Tara, lead wire to wire to win the Belmont in 2:29.3 earning a 99 Beyer figure. For whatever reason Big Brown didn't fire. What does this do to Big Brown's stud value and legacy? His stud value took a major hit. Instead of a Triple Crown winner, Big Brown is a dual Classic winner with major soundness issues. As impressive as his Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby wins were, there is still the lingering question as to whether this is a slow crop of 3yo. Big Brown's top figure of 109 is slower than War Pass's 110 earned in last year's BC Juvenile. Few of the colts in this year's crop have run triple digit Beyers (on the other hand what a crop of 3yo fillies - Zaftig earned a 113 in the Acorn with Indian Blessing getting a 104 in defeat). A Belmont victory would've allowed Big Brown to start his stud career at $250,000 a live foal. Now fair value is probably $100,000. He will not be able to raise his stud value much unless he is flawless the rest of the year. If he throws another clunker or two he is worth even less. Look for Big Brown to be retired. If he does continue to run I expect he'll stay in division, beating up on this slow 3yo crop. As for his legacy, right now he'd rank below Smarty Jones, who was faster and narrowly lost the Belmont. Point Given, Curlin, and Street Sense also had stronger 3yo seasons. Of course the year is not over yet.
Da' Tara's win in the Belmont Stakes marks the first win in an American Classic for the Goldolphin Arabian-Matchem sire line since 1937 (War Admiral). He is the first non-Darley Arabian-Eclipse sire line horse since Amberiod won the Belmont in 1966. The sire line represented by Da' Tara is one of the oldest and most important surviving American lines. It traces back to the importation of Australian in 1858. Australian's great grandson was the legendary Man o'War. The strand of the Matchem line that survives is through champion sprinter In Reality's two sons, Valid Appeal and Relauch. Current sires include Tiznow, Successful Appeal, Bertrando, Officer, Valid Expectations, Honour and Glory, Swiss Yodeler, Cee's Tizzy, and Put It Back. Most of these sires get sprinters, but Tiznow may be the exception. Da' Tara's win vaults Tiznow to #2 behind Smart Strike on the U.S. sires list.
I will play tickets with 6As, 5As & 1B, 5As & 1C, and 4As & 2Bs. That will be a $784 play.
I will also hit the Pick 4 hard $5 Pick 4 2/5/ALL/1 ($55) $2 Pick 4 2/5/1,3,5,9,10,11/1 ($12) $2 Pick 4 2/2,5,9/ALL/1 ($66) $2 Pick 4 2/2,5,9/1,3,5,9,10,11/1 ($36) $1 Pick 4 2/ALL/1,3,5,9,10,11/1 ($54) $1 Pick 4 2/5/1,3,5,9,10,11/1,3,4,7,8,10 ($36) $1 Pick 4 2/2,5,9/1,3,5,9,10,11/1,7 ($36) $1 Pick 4 1,2,3,5/5/1,3,5,9,10,11/1,7 ($42) $1 Pick 4 1,2,3,5/5/1,3,5,9,10,11/1 ($21) That's a $367 play
If Indian Blessing is better than even money in the Acorn than I'll bet $200 to win on her. If J Be K is better than 2/1 in the Woody Stephens than I'll bet $100 on him. If Casino Drive stays in the Belmont I will play against him in exotics with Big Brown on top otherwise I will pass the race.
Watch the place and show pools in the Belmont Stakes where Big Brown is likely to get underbet.
What to do about the Belmont? I figure it comes down to this – I can pile up on Big Brown, betting a lot in hopes of winning a little, or try to beat him. Trying to beat him will be a tall task. There are a slew of reasons that he should lose the Belmont, not withstanding all the great horses who have lost this race at short odds while gunning for the Triple Crown. Big Brown has other major question marks. His feet are a real issue despite the media’s positive spin on the situation (miracle work of Ian McKinlay) and his pedigree reveals distance limitations. That being said, who is going to beat him? Casino Drive, if he runs (he may have a stone bruise and did not train today) is going to be massively overbet. He has run only twice in his life and while both wins were impressive, the Belmont is a grueling race that requires both stamina and seasoning. There is no doubt Casino Drive has the pedigree, but this is exactly what will make him unappealing. He will be heavily backed because he is 1/2 to ’06 Belmont winner Jazil and 3/4 to ’07 Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Like those two he can probably run all day. He is from the first crop of ’03 Horse of the Year Mineshaft (by A.P. Indy) who excelled in US dirt routes after flopping overseas. Usually I am a sucker for a pedigree play like this but I’m willing to bet that Casino Drive will finish up the track. So who does that leave? Tale of Ekati has had issues training up to the Belmont and doesn't seem to want to go 1½ miles but he is a dual qualifier and that has been an explosive angle in the Belmont. Anak Nakal is bred to run all day and has a nice 2yo foundation (weighted 113 in the EFH, won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club), but he finished only fifth closing into monstrous fractions in the Wood Memorial (at 45-1). If that is all he can manage in ideal conditions, how can he win here? Denis Cork passed tired horses to clunk up and finish third in the Derby. His pedigree is solid (Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled mare). Is he more like Jazil, who came from last to 4th in the ’06 Derby or Imawildandcrazyguy who came from last to 4th in the ’07 Derby? Icabad Crane made a nice late move in the Preakness but he had to fight tooth and nail to beat no one in the Frederico Tesio. Ready’s Echo has a questionable pedigree and an ill-suited racing style (a deep closer). Macho Again has a nice 2yo foundation and is improving but it seems unlikely he can jump up enough to win. Da’ Tara is not going 12f. Guadalcanal is a slow maiden.
Uh, ok, so what do I do? Perhaps I'll just watch and hope to toast Big Brown in victory. With Casino Drive likely to scratch all value will be taken out of the exotics with Big Brown on top (unless maybe Guadalcanal can clunk up to third). There is no Birdstone in this field. Hell, there is no Eddington or Rock Hard Ten or even Purge in this field either. I predict that not a single horse opposing Big Brown will ever win a race of significance (Birdstone won the Travers, Eddington won the Pimlico Special and the Gulfstream Park Handicap, Rock Hard Ten won the Malibu, the Strub, the Big 'Cap, and the Goodwood, Purge won the Cigar Mile).
So Big Brown will win the Triple Crown in a gallop. Is he a great horse? Maybe. Will we ever find out? not likely. Though the folks at Suffolk Down have the right idea.
Symposium of the Southern Economic Journal - Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy
Date:
Monday 15 – Tuesday 16 September 2008
Time:
To be confirmed
Event:
Symposium of the Southern Economic Journal - Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy
Location:
Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
Details:
In recent years, there has been a substantial increase in expenditure on various forms of gambling and prediction markets, including casinos, sports betting, lotteries, wagering on financial instruments. The rapid growth in this activity has heightened interest in a variety of public policy issues related to this sector.
Managers and policymakers seek guidance on how to tax and regulate this activity within regions, countries, and across national borders. Unfortunately, there is little systematic theoretical and empirical evidence to guide such decisions, given the somewhat embryonic nature of the literature. Furthermore, gambling and prediction markets provide a unique and convenient framework within which to examine fundamental issues relating to traditional areas of economics. For these reasons, this is an opportune time to address questions relating to gambling and prediction markets in a special issue of the Southern Economic Journal.
Guest Editors:
Donald Siegel, University of California, Riverside
David Paton, Nottingham University Business School
Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
Research questions that contributors to the symposium might address are:
What is the optimal level and structure of taxation for various forms of gambling?
What are the implications of new forms of financial instruments based on gambling principles, such as ‘spread’ (index) betting, binary betting, and person-to-person ‘exchange’ betting?
How does the growth of gambling affect the broader economy?
What factors influence productivity and other performance indicators in the gambling sector?
Does gambling promote economic development?
How should governments regulate 'Indian' gaming?
What are the managerial and policy implications of online gambling?
How can prediction markets be used in decision-making?
Are there systematic biases in betting and prediction markets?
How well do prediction markets relative to other forecasting tools, such as opinion polls?
What is the optimal design of prediction markets?
What are the applications of prediction markets?
What is the empirical evidence on information efficiency in betting markets and what implications does this have for our broader understanding of financial and prediction markets?
Papers on related issues not explicitly listed above are also very welcome.
Submission and Review Process:
Submissions (an abstract will be sufficient at this stage) must be made on or before 23 May 2008. After the symposium, selected papers will be externally reviewed according to standard policies of the Southern Economic Journal. Papers (or abstracts) should be submitted to Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams.
Current Time Line:
23 May 2008
Deadline for electronic submission of abstracts or papers to the Symposium
15 June 2008
Notification to authors regarding acceptance to the Symposium Conference
15 Sept 2008
Symposium at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
January 2009
Final decisions on papers for Special Issue
Conference Details:
The special issue conference will now be held at Nottingham Business School 15 and 16 September 16, 2008, with a welcome reception on Sunday 14 September.
The registration fee is £235 + VAT, to include the conference dinner and refreshments, or £375 + VAT to also include two nights’ accommodation at the Days Inn Nottingham. Delegates not presenting papers for consideration in the special issue are also welcome to attend the conference at the advised rates.
To register, or if you have any conference queries, contact Julie Stravino, Conference Organiser at Nottingham Trent University on +44 (0)115 848 6090.
Baffert: Dirt Road to the Derby by Bob Baffert with Steve Haskin (1999), Proof by Dick Francis (1985), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
(2007), Gold Rush: How Mr. Prospector Became Racing’s Billion Dollar Sire by Avalyn Hunter (2007), Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart by Ian Ayers (2007)
